The Daily Caller recently highlighted "5 key bellwethers to watch on Election Day" 2024: the early results in Pennsylvania, the margins in Virginia, how Muslims in Michigan vote, how suburban women vote, and how Trump does in Iowa. Glenn and Stu discuss just how close this election may be, despite the momentum for Trump. Plus, Glenn and Stu discuss the odds that this election will be a blowout and whether Stu's electoral map prediction will be as accurate as it was in 2020.

Transcript

Below is a rush transcript that may contain errors

GLENN: It is Election Day. If you haven't voted, if somebody in your family hasn't voted, get them out to vote.

As long as they're -- you know, they've done their homework. There's always a moron in there.

No. Don't. You know what, you don't -- you shouldn't vote.

Now, there's -- according to the Daily Caller, five key bellwethers to watch on Election Day. I want to go over them with Stu.

Because Stu is the guy who watches all these numbers.

And yesterday, you predicted a Trump victory.


STU: Yeah. Very hesitant Trump victory.

I'm very undecided.

GLENN: You didn't do that in 2020.

STU: No. In fact, 2020 got the electoral count exactly right. 306 electoral votes for Joe Biden. And everyone hates you, when you say that.

GLENN: I know. I know.

STU: But, you know, I -- that's what I thought was going to happen.

It wound up coming true. But this time, I'm not nearly as sure. I don't have a really strong opinion. I got to the -- we did our show last night on Stu Does America. Our final predictions.

And it got to those swing states. And, you know, a couple of them I have a vibe on.

You know, a couple of them, I'm kind of just guessing. I hate to say it that way. But it's kind of where you are.

You're taking your vibes. You're kind of encapsulating 18 months of campaigning into a feeling. And I think a lot of people will do that today. I would not bet money on who will win.

She can win this election. But, also, there's a good chance that one of these two candidates, you know, sweeps all seven of these swing states, and winds up with what feels like an easy victory.

It won't be. You know, I don't think it will be an easy victory.

If you start seeing someone taking out states, those fringe swing states. You know, New Hampshire, Virginia for Trump.

You know, going the other way.

Texas for Kamala. Florida, for Kamala. Iowa for Kamala. If that stuff starts happening. That's a blowout.

These type of swing states. If they all go to one of the two candidates. I don't think it will be much of a blowout.

I am very, very undecided on it.

My final count was 291 electoral votes for Trump.

As I was putting it together, as a final prediction for the show. I reversed myself on two or three states, multiple times.

And that is not -- when you're doing that. You know.

I've been watching this obsessively for 18 months.

And on -- an hour before I go to the air, I am reversing states nap tells you that we don't know. Because I don't know.

GLENN: So here are the things.

And I would like to hear your point of view on this.

Are these the things you should watch for: Early returns for Pennsylvania. It is probably one of the most important states, likely a tipping point. You lose this one.

I mean, you could gain --

STU: You could do it. But it's hard. Especially for Trump.

Kamala needs it, you would think.

If Trump can get it, he's probably winning this election.

GLENN: Right. This is why Kamala was out knocking doors last night. Quote, unquote.

Knocking doors. Somebody else was knocking the door. Kamala supporter.

STU: Oh, the part where, hey, Kamala. Kamala goes -- they won't to film you coming out. We go back in, and I can knock on the door again?

The fact that that sort of stuff is happening. What a perfect last-minute encapsulation of the Kamala Harris campaign.

GLENN: Yeah. Just fake. All of it fake. So Pennsylvania.

80,000 votes in Pennsylvania, decided 2020. 90,000 Amish in Pennsylvania. Also, 80,000 truckers in Pennsylvania, that didn't really turn out last time because a lot of them were on the road.

The G.O.P. has been all over that. Make sure they have -- you know, ballots, mail-in ballots.

Also, just this weekend on the other side, the Harris campaign knocked on almost a million doors.

$807,000 doors were knocked.

In 2020, in Pennsylvania, Democrats had the advantage of more than 1.1 million mail-in ballots.
They knew, a couple of weeks before, we are going to win.

Today, the Democrats only have an advantage of 400,000. That's a 700,000-vote swing. That they're down -- and that is good, if people show up today, to vote.

Virginia is also another one. Harris is probably another one that will win Virginia.

If Donald Trump picks up Virginia, that's a big deal. If he loses Virginia, under five points, that's also a big deal.

STU: Yeah. If he can keep it within five points, I think he's probably going to win the election.

GLENN: Yeah. Yeah. And we should bank that pretty early, shouldn't we?

STU: Yeah. Polls close relatively early. It's not one of those states that takes a month to count. Typically.

Again, Florida is the gold standard, which is shocking. They actually fixed their system. Theater ones that will give you the first result.

Florida is also not the best bellwether. We've seen this before. In 2022, was a big situation, if you remember correctly.

Because DeSantis won by so much. That everyone was like, oh, my gosh.

This is a Republican wave election. Because they were one of the first results.

And it did not wind up panning out in other states. Sometimes Florida is a little bit different. And since they're the first kind of like big state, we hear about --

GLENN: Yeah.

If it goes poorly, Florida, for Donald Trump, it will be a bad night.

STU: Well, the polling is interesting there, Glenn.

GLENN: I know.

STU: Because we kind of thought now, that because of what DeSantis has done in Florida, that this is just a bright red state.

Look, Rick Scott is up by three points in Florida in a lot of these polls.

Donald Trump is up by four or five points in some polls in Florida.

I think he is going to win. But it will be a heck of a lot closer than DeSantis when he won by, what was it? Nineteen.

GLENN: Yeah. I have to tell you, the other thing that is disturbing.

The Cruz campaign called us to get him on the air today.

They are concerned about Texas. And you should be concerned about Texas.

It is close. It is very close.

They have spent millions and millions and millions of dollars. And Ted Cruz has done it all on his supporters and himself.

The -- they've been outspent like crazy, because of Mitch McConnell.


STU: Yeah. And George Soros.

GLENN: And George Soros. Yes.

STU: McConnell not giving money to Cruz is a factor.

But Democrats are targeting this with hundreds of millions of dollars.

GLENN: So another thing to watch for is the Muslims in Michigan.

If they don't show up. Or they're voting third person. Or they're not voting for Trump, which I find that hard to believe. But you had the mayor of the biggest Muslim community in Michigan come out and endorse. Along with a lot of the imams, endorse Donald Trump. I find it hard to believe.

STU: Yeah. If Trump will be like, hey, we will win this election.

If we get the Muslim vote, I think he's -- you know, probably -- that's not the position you want to be in.

GLENN: No. But --

STU: He'll take them. He'll take 10 percent. Take it.

STU: Yeah. For sure. For sure.

GLENN: The pitch to suburban women.

Now, this goes down to Iowa.

I think if he loses Iowa, it's -- it's going -- it could be a rough night.

He's not counted out.

STU: He's not mathematically eliminated.

But if he loses Iowa, there's no way he's winning this election.

GLENN: You don't think so?

STU: I don't think so. That doesn't mean mathematically he can't win. He definitely theoretically could win. In an environment where they lose the state, again, this makes no sense to me.

Kim Reynolds won that state by 19 points, two years ago, in a bad year for Republicans. We've seen increases all over the place, in Republican registration.

That's not -- I'm -- as I mentioned to you off the air. I'm super skeptical of trying to take anything out of early vote.

Particularly this year. When you're comparing early vote to the COVID year, God only knows what you're getting.

I'm not surprised at all, that Democrat's early vote numbers were down. They were all terrified. They wouldn't go outdoors at the time that this election was taking place.

GLENN: I know. But you are -- people are motivated, or not.

STU: I agree.

GLENN: And I don't think -- I think where the hidden number is, in these polls, is the lack of motivation for Harris.

People will talk a good game.

I'm for Harris.

STU: And some even show her enthusiasm higher than Trump's, which doesn't make any sense to me.

GLENN: No way.

STU: That's even shown in some polls.

GLENN: No way. No way.

STU: Look, we all that know it's not Kamala enthusiasm.

The correct way to look at it is anti-Trump enthusiasm.

That sort of does connect with me.

I do sort of see Democrats feel that way.

Not that I do. But I'm saying, as far as they do.

We know they hate him.

We got it. They're really wanting to keep Hitler out of office. We've got it.

GLENN: They're hypnotized.

STU: When comes to early voting, though. The numbers coming up for Republicans.

I think it can be partially explained by the fact that Trump discouraged the early vote in 2020, and now he's encouraging it. So I'm not surprised to see those numbers come up.

And I'm not surprised to see them come down for Democrats. Because in 2020, there was COVID. And they were all afraid to go to restaurants, let alone, go out to vote.

So I'm not at all surprised by that. I'm not saying that that means bad things.

Obviously, I predicted Trump to win.

PAT: But here's what the Republicans are counting on.

STU: Uh-huh.

GLENN: In the polls for people who are planning on voting today, he is up by 16 points.

If that would hold, it -- it would be hard for the Democrats to pull this off.

You disagree with that?

STU: You may be right. Just, I don't have a spreadsheet out to make a prediction out like that.

I have not -- I don't know.

It's possible, you're right.

I don't know. There's so many factors that go into this. And the other part of it, that we don't know at all.

From early voting.

One important thing. We have no idea, who any independents voted for.

We have no idea who anyone voted for.

But we assume the Republicans vote for the Republicans and Democrats vote for Democrats.

Independents, we have no indication, whatsoever.

Right? We have no indication from early vote what independents did. So in an election that is this close, kind of an important nugget of information.

GLENN: I know. I know.

You're basing it all on numbers, facts, and figures. I'm basing it all on gut.

And we've lost the ability to predict the American people, long ago!

But, you know, I'll explain it at the top of next hour. Why I feel as strong as I do.

With the one caveat. I don't know if I can predict the American people anymore.

I don't know.

I mean, our education system has turned out morons and idiots. That don't even know what it means, to be a republic, versus a democracy.

So nobody knows our institutions.

Nobody knows why this was founded this way.

So maybe they don't get it.