Former president Donald Trump is now leading President Biden in the polls in nearly every battleground state. But how much of this would change if Trump is convicted of a crime and goes to jail? While many Americans believe the lawsuits against Trump are nothing more than political hit jobs, there's still a chance that one of them could land him in prison before the 2024 election. And there's even a chance that he could be removed from the ballot in some states if he is convicted in his January 6th trial. Glenn, Pat, and Stu discuss what a campaign run from prison could look like for Trump and if it would help or hurt his chances of winning in 2024.
Transcript
Below is a rush transcript that may contain errors
GLENN: Welcome to the Glenn Beck Program.
We're glad you're here. Thank you so much.
We're just talking about the polls of Trump, leading Biden now in nearly every battle ground state. And he is leading in every battleground state.
STU: Five out of six, I think it was.
GLENN: Except for Wisconsin.
STU: Wisconsin.
GLENN: And could you look into, and break this down at all, on demographics?
STU: Yeah. I mean, it's not good for Joe Biden.
Again, the democratic voting base is -- assumes 95-ish percent of black voters.
90 percent. 85 percent of Hispanic voters.
That's thousand they get into power.
They just dominate these groups by so much, it's overwhelming.
Well, Donald Trump in this poll, has 22 percent support among African-Americans.
This would be a modern day first for a Republican.
A sizable improvement over the 8 percent he had in the same states in 2020.
GLENN: Wow.
STU: And a Hispanic voter.
GLENN: Wow. Where was it? Do you know, in 2016? It wasn't that high.
STU: I don't have it on off the top of my head.
GLENN: Sixteen or 12, something like that.
STU: Yeah. It's right around there. That sounds about right, from memory. Hispanic voters as well.
Of course, he earned 28 percent of Hispanic voters in 2016.
And 2020, it rose to 36 percent.
GLENN: Wow.
STU: Trump now has 42 percent in this poll of Hispanic swing state voters. It's a little bit of a different population. There's some asterisks involved in all of that. Generally speaking, it's showing that the multi-cultural base of the Democratic Party is eroding in a major way. And largely, it's because of Joe Biden.
They look at everything he's done. And they say, number one, he's too sold. He doesn't know what he's doing. He doesn't have the mental acute. He's asked in this poll specifically. And they don't think he has it.
And then also, all these things, like inflation and the stuff that we complain about all the time, it hits these populations really hard.
GLENN: Really hard.
Pat Gray from Pat Gray Unleashed has joined us now.
Pat, President Trump goes in to testify today. In the New York trial.
And this is the one where, you know, he was committing fraud, because he said his house was worth, you know, pretty much --
PAT: More than it was.
GLENN: Well, they say, more than it was.
Others say, it was -- it was pretty close on target, for what it really is.
But if he goes to jail, how much does this change?
PAT: Well, I was really happy to see the New York Times point out, that if he goes to jail, he loses all five of those swing states then. That he otherwise would win. So if he's convicted and goes to jail, he won't win those swing states.
And they were really -- really great at pointing that you the on.
STU: It really wasn't even that strong.
It was 6 percent of people switch their votes if he's in jail.
GLENN: If he's in jail.
PAT: If he's in jail, literally.
STU: That would be enough to cost him the election in these polls. Again, it's just a poll. Still, it would be enough. However, I was amazed. That's a pretty low number.
PAT: It is.
GLENN: And I'm not sure that that's true.
STU: Yeah. I'm not sure.
GLENN: I'm not sure that's true.
PAT: The only way that were true, is if he were kept off the ballot in those states, if he were in prison.
GLENN: The only way. The only way, and I think you would go to the Supreme Court on this.
The only way that would happen is if he were convicted in the January 6th stuff. Insurrection.
STU: You think that one. Because I can't imagine people will be like, well, he took too many documents from his office.
And he put them in a bathroom. Therefore, he shouldn't be president. I don't think that's real. I don't think the American people care that much about that type of thing. January 6th thing, I think they do.
We obviously have looked into this. Talked about it all the time.
Talked about some moderate voter, in a swing state.
I think that would have an effect.
If he was convicted over it. It would be interesting to see.
I don't think it would be positive.
I think it would be hard to run a campaign from prison. And look, we all know this is what they want.
GLENN: It's been done before.
STU: It has been done before about. But not successfully. Not successfully.
GLENN: But it was a Communist. Multiple Communists, actually. Peace and freedom party has run candidates for prison, multiple times.
GLENN: Yes. Right.
STU: But generally speaking, very difficult to do.
Suboptimal would be one way.
And like, when we talk about this. We always talk about the actual merits of these cases. Does that make any difference at all?
The merits of the cases have nothing to do with this story. The story is about whether these people will throw him in prison. Whether the merits are true or not.
That's what you have to worry about, if you're Donald Trump or the Republican Party. It will be hard. It will be a difficult task to achieve to be elected from prison.
And I don't know if they will -- but it's is not impossible.
GLENN: I've seen conversations. I can't remember who was -- who did a piece on this.
But with the African-American community.
And it might actually help him, in the African-American community.
Not because they want, you know, somebody who is, you know, a felon in.
They see injustice.
And all of the people they think, many people, are -- have been used and abused by the system. And thrown into prison.
STU: Right. It's sort of -- they connect with the oppression.
GLENN: They connect with the oppression. And they'll look at that and go, oh, my gosh. He's now one of us.
STU: And look, Donald Trump can pull off these magic tricks that no one else can do.
He can be a multi-billionaire in a giant skyscraper. And not only convince people, he's a man of the people, but also that he's oppressed. He's just able to do it.
GLENN: He's actually -- yes. He has his own plane. But he eats McDonald's. You know what I mean?
STU: Yeah. I think it works for him.
GLENN: He's a strange kind of combination of everything.
STU: It's fascinating to see.
I mean, he really can. He is a magician when it comes to politics.
That's the thing, when you look at the movement behind him long-term.
There have been very few people who are able to pull that off, other than him.
Right?
A lot of these candidates that he puts up for these. And he praises don't do that well. Because they don't have whatever he has.
Right?
Donald Trump has something somewhat unique. This is not something -- this is not breaking news. The guy is pretty unique too.
And he is able to pull things off, that other politicians or candidates cannot. He's been the only one that has been able to do it.
There are some examples of people who have similar viewpoints of him. That have done okay. Really, there's something magical in the recipe there.
That he has, that no one else has. And he will remind you that if you ask him.
PAT: And can you imagine what will happen if he's removed from the ballots, in a lot of these states? The chaos. The rioting. It would be ugly.
GLENN: It would be Civil War.
You cannot do that.
They're doing -- the Democrats are doing everything they can, to thwart the election process.
PAT: And they would love to see chaos like that. They would love it.
GLENN: Oh, yeah. They would.
It might be the final straw.
GLENN: Right.
STU: Do you think, even if he gets convicted and put in prison, of some sort.
I mean, I think that that line makes the country unrecognizable. I don't know how people would react to that.
PAT: It's banana republic stuff.
STU: It really is.
And would it be hard to argue anything other than that.
You're putting a guy leading to be president in prison so that he can't be president. That is legitimately what happens in Venezuela.
GLENN: Right. Well, this is -- this is what they impeached him over. The Democrats said, he was going to a foreign entity. Ukraine. And trying to get dirt on his opponent, to be able to make sure he went to jail. That's exactly what Biden is doing.
STU: Yeah. It really is remarkable. And I --
PAT: Incredible.
STU: And I don't know.
It would be one thing if they did this in the immediate aftermath. If right after January 6th happened, they tried the quick, sort of express impeachment, if you will. Which was really, really a joke.
But if they had done this, and tried to go after him, and tried to prove he did something wrong. Or whatever.
It may have been more acceptable to people. Wait until he's running and winning.
And then be like, oh, by the way. We have a bunch of charges from like 12 different states.
Everything he has ever done was wrong. We all found out today.
Like, it's so transparent, that people have to be able to see that, I would think.
GLENN: It's bizarre. I know.
STU: But I get surprised by the American people often.
GLENN: So from Texas, the Democrat from Texas, Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett is worried that voter's feelings will result in a vote for Trump.
STU: Oh, no. Not feelings.
GLENN: Yeah. Not feelings.
STU: Oh, no.
GLENN: Okay. She's worried about the feelings, and not the facts.
PAT: Well, do you know why she's worried about the feelings though?
Is because all black people don't know how they're actually doing. They don't -- those are the facts they don't understand.
They don't understand two things. That they're doing way better, that they think they are.
The other thing, they are just don't understand our system. They're too stupid.
GLENN: Oh, they don't understand.
STU: That's based on the color of their skin.
PAT: Of their skin.
GLENN: Wow. That is interesting.
Well, she said also that they feel as though they're not doing well.
PAT: Right. But they are.
She has to tell them, yes, you are.
GLENN: Because it's the -- the facts, yes, you are.
Isn't that incredible.
PAT: It's unbelievable.
GLENN: The standard, first of all, being worried about somebody's feelings over facts. Coming from a progressive Democrat. Where all of euro feelings are valid.
PAT: Yeah. Right.
GLENN: No. No, they're not.
And now, when they can't change the feelings, they have to change the facts.
PAT: Uh-huh.
GLENN: I mean, it is -- it's nuts.