RADIOApril 19, 2024

Bitcoin Halving EXPLAINED: Will This One Be DIFFERENT?

The Bitcoin halving is here, but what is this event and will it be different from previous ones? Glenn and Stu explain what a Bitcoin halving is, what usually happens, and why some believe there won’t be a spike in Bitcoin value this time around. But are they right? Or is it still a good time to buy?

Transcript

Below is a rush transcript that may contain errors

GLENN: Hey, today is Bitcoin. What they call the havoc. Right?

STU: Happy havoc day, to those who celebrate. Yes. Ten hours away from now, it looks like.

GLENN: It sounds like something that would maybe happen, in -- what was that?

That film happened in Norway. It was like that summer festival.

It's like the halving, and they're all gathered in some beautiful place.

STU: Yes. What was that movie?

What was that? It was very -- it was one I wouldn't watch.

GLENN: It was creepy.

It could have been called the Halving.

Or, you know, When Magic Goes Bad. David Copperfield stars in the Halving. Now, I have to cut this woman in half. And he can't put her back. Maybe I don't --

STU: That would be a good plot. That's not what the halving is for Bitcoin though.

GLENN: Yeah.

STU: And you've seen the price go up. There's been various reasons for that over the past year.

The ETFs. Meaning a lot of money is flowing into Bitcoin for the first time, really. That is a big catalyst of it.

The other is the halving, which happens, what? Every four years.

You don't know exactly what will happen. As they get closer and closer, they can specify.

And it will be today, at some point. About ten hours from now.

GLENN: And what does it mean exactly?

STU: Basically, when Bitcoin started. You have to have miners with, who are going to mine the Bitcoin to kind of bring it into availability for everybody.

GLENN: And you knew this would involve minors.

STU: No, it's not like Jeffrey Epstein. Think of a coal miner, except digitally.

GLENN: Different kind of miner. Okay. All right. What are they wearing? Are they wearing pants?

STU: That's not important. That's not important. By the way, Bitcoin miners know they're not wearing pants. They're in their underwear in their mother's basement. At least that's how it started. It was people in their underwear in their mom's basement, basically. And they were mining tons and tons of Bitcoin.

Now, remember, Bitcoin, there will only ever be 21 million of them. They are sort of -- think of them being mined. They are slowly mined, this time, I think we've mined, 2140. I don't know. It's a long way. But the basic idea with the halving, is every four years the reward for the miners gets cut in half. So the reason that's important, is the supply shrinks.

So maybe, you go back years and years and years. There's tons and tons of Bitcoin going on. Getting mined every single day.

Now, that number gets cut in half.

It was like each block, which is about every ten minutes.

Each one of those, it was six Bitcoin. Were freed into the world.

Like released into the world.

Now it's like three. It shrinks every four years. 1.75. 1.5. Or 1.25. It's not exact numbers.

GLENN: Until it gets to zero and there's no more Bitcoin left.

STU: And that's at 21 million Bitcoin. So you are now at -- I think it's six to three, roughly, in this particular halving. And the other part about the halving that has been important to note, is every time, there has been one, over the next six months, there has been a massive increase in the prophesy Bitcoin. Now, will this happen this time? No one knows. Past performance is not indicative of future results, we all know the disclaimer.

GLENN: We really do know that disclaimer. You may not know that disclaimer, but we do.
STU: Yes. Very true.

GLENN: The views of Stu are not necessarily those of the host.

STU: This is not financial advice.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. We don't know. We have also had a very large rise over the past year. So some people theorized, it's already built in.

Right?

This time, the rise we've already had, is basically part of what the halving would bring. However, when you look at the charts over the past three or four or five halvings. We've had massive increases. All those times, where all of a sudden, everyone around you, was talking about Bitcoin. Almost all those periods happened between six months.

Three to nine months after a halving.

GLENN: After. Not before.

STU: Well, you've seen some rises before. Generally, speaking, the real pop has happened after.

GLENN: This has been a real pop. This brought us back to where it was.

STU: There's a reason to believe, there's more here. Again, the last one was in 2020. Do you remember the 2021 phenomenon?

Then you had a drop back down. We are now down back to where we were, 2021.

GLENN: Making a case that somebody should buy, just a fraction of Bitcoin.

STU: Okay.

GLENN: I mean, you know, when it first started, and everybody was on board. Everybody was buying Bitcoin.

Because it was like, I have three Bitcoin. You know.

STU: Yep.

GLENN: And now, most people cannot afford to buy -- no.

STU: Of course not. Let me put it this way.

Right now, you would say, Bitcoin, $60,000. Basically, it's only for a millionaire.

Someone who wants tons of money, who will throw into a Bitcoin.

You might say only millionaires can afford that.

You might say something like that. Think of it this way, there are 24.5 million millionaires just in the United States.

GLENN: 24.5 million millionaires.

STU: Yes. Right. Right now, there will never be enough Bitcoin for every millionaire in the United States to own one. That doesn't include millionaires around the world. There are already too many millionaires for just millionaires to get one of these things.

GLENN: How much of it do you think is lost? Permanently, forever, lost.

STU: Permanently. Like, for example, we know the Satoshi's account. Which, the guy who invented Bitcoin. We don't know who it is. Group of people. Or if he's dead. I think they're dead. That's my opinion. He has an account with 1 million of it, in it, that's never moved.

So we basically know, unless this guy reveals himself somehow in the future. Which is not likely, that a million of them are lost. We also know, early on, people were mining these things and getting thousands and tens of thousands of them. And just losing -- turning their computer off. And not thinking they were worth anything.

The estimates are that probably something like a third of them are lost forever. So instead of 21 million, maybe it's 14 million. Maybe it's 15 million.

Somewhere in that vicinity. Now that they're valuable, people are not losing them, of course. At least as often. It's still happening every day.

People screw it up. They lose it.

They send it to the wrong account. That stuff still happens. But you're probably talking about, let's say 15 million, that actually will exist.

You have 24.5 millionaires in the United States. In the world, you have about 60 million millionaires. So if you split up all the Bitcoin in the world, just among millionaires, they can only get a quarter of one each.

Now, if you can put some in there. The idea that these things will go down in value.

Over the very long-term. To me, is unlikely.

And part of that is, at the beginning of this, nobody knew. Right?

Like when I first invested in Bitcoin. And I don't have a lot of money in Bitcoin. But when I first started in Bitcoin. My thought was, I'm going to throw some money in this, let's see what happens.

I have absolutely no idea.

My thought was, there's a good chance. I said this to you, at the time. There's a good chance it goes to zero. It was a total gamble. I had no idea.

I liked the concept of money that can't be inflated and printed. Right?

I like that concept. That's why I was interested in it.

But, I mean, how many multi-trillion dollar industries can you remember going to zero?

I mean, is there any example of this?

GLENN: White star line. This has I don't think they were worth trillions. Right?

Enron was a big company, right?

Don't remember it being worth trillions. Bitcoin's market cap is over a trillion dollars.

GLENN: No. I can't see it going to zero. Unless all the central banks in the world say, not --

STU: It's so resistant to that right now. Though.

GLENN: I know.

STU: We're seeing countries open up. And start accepting it. You know, the United States of America, has now accepted Bitcoin ETFs. That's a huge embrace of this technology.

And look, I don't know. I can't tell you, it won't go down in the future. I would be surprised if it never goes down below these levels again. It probably will.

So you might buy today. And at some point, be down.

A lot of people bought in 2021. And thought, oh, my gosh, I've lost all my money.

Except, now pretty much every person who has ever bought Bitcoin in its history, if they held on to it, is either about even or up.

GLENN: Everybody. Even the people who bought at the very peak.

STU: Everybody. Yeah, unless you bought like a couple of months ago, when it hit 69-70 for a couple of days. There's a few people.

But generally speaking, almost no one who has ever purchased this and kept it, has lost money.

And that's that's quite a statement. Again, what other investments can you point to, that has that type of record?

There's almost none. So I don't know. You don't know what the future holds, but man, this is a technology that has proved itself incredibly resilient.

GLENN: I get really pissed at you, every time we talk about this. Every time.

STU: You get pissed at me.

Why are you pissed at me?

GLENN: Yes, I do. I blame you for bad decisions. Blame you.

STU: Why?

GLENN: I was with Marc Andreessen.

STU: Yes.

GLENN: It might have even been a fraction of a cent.

STU: It was before -- well before I bought it. That's for sure.

Because I remember the conversation.

GLENN: Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.

And he's going to start some new thing with this new currency.

STU: Yeah. I remember you telling me this, at the time. I fortunately, did not listen.

GLENN: Yeah. Neither did I. Neither did I.

And we could have put hundred dollars in it, at this point.

STU: Oh, my gosh.

$100. Do you know how much that would be worth?

GLENN: It was a fraction of a cent. Wasn't it?

STU: I don't remember if it was that low, but it was really early.

GLENN: It was right as he started the digital wallet.

Coinbase. It was right as he started it.

STU: Gosh. This makes me physically ill.

GLENN: I think he actually told me that before he started it.

Or he may have --

STU: In the middle of making money or whatever.

GLENN: Yeah. He said, do you know anything about Bitcoin. You should invest.

Just take $5,000. And just throw it in this. And I'm like, uh-huh.

And I -- at the time, $5,000 was -- you know.

STU: You would probably be a billionaire.

GLENN: I would be.

STU: I can't imagine how many you would have -- I love this story.

GLENN: Well, look it up. Look it up.

Look up when they opened Coinbase.

And what the price of Bitcoin was. $5,000.

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Ten-second station ID.
(music)

GLENN: So go ahead.

STU: What?

GLENN: Why he didn't you invest in it? You're always -- you're that kind of guy. You know, I just threw some money in it. Why didn't you --

STU: I mean, I think I did. I just didn't do it as early as that.

Again, I wish I had invested more. Then I wouldn't have to be sitting here with you every day. It would be a dream.

GLENN: If I had a time machine, that's the only thing I would change. And for that reason. I would go back in time.

STU: You would make me -- you actually wouldn't mind making me a billionaire, just so I wouldn't have to be here every day?

GLENN: Yeah. Yeah. That's the kind of guy I am.

STU: How about this, I'll it do for 10 mil right now. Get some financing.

So it depends. It's hard to know exactly when you talk to him. The Coinbase started in 2012. Coinbase is a little later, when you're talking a fraction of a cent, so it was about ten bucks in 2020 -- when it actually started selling Bitcoin. When Coinbase began that process, it was about ten bucks.

If you spent $5,000 then, you would have had about 500 Bitcoin, which would be worth $32.5 million. Which would be incredibly nice. However, my remembrance of this story was, it was before -- before that. When it was sort of being dreamt up.

So it could have been.

GLENN: It was one of the first times I've ever heard of Bitcoin. And I think I came back to you. And I said, what is Bitcoin?

And you were like, well, people buy pizzas with it.

STU: This is ridiculous history.

GLENN: That's exactly what he said.
STU: I don't think I knew much of anything. I had heard of it. But I didn't know anything about it at that time -- I definitely was not discouraging you in investing $5,000. That's exactly how you remember it.

GLENN: That's exactly how I remember it, Your Honor.

STU: And one fascinating thing I think that really hasn't fully taken -- taken root yet when it comes to the Bitcoin phenomenon.

GLENN: By the way, hang on just a second. I just have to say something. I said at the time. I said that, on the air too.

STU: Oh, really?

We should go back and find it.

We can probably find it.

GLENN: Marc Andreessen. He's at Bitcoin.

Blah, blah, blah. But Warren Buffett. He says, if you don't understand it, you shouldn't invest in it.

STU: Where did you find that?

GLENN: I wonder if anybody. If anybody did it.

What our earliest time was, when we said. Hey, maybe you should throw some money into it.

I don't know if I will do it. If anybody in the audience. Of course, there was somebody that was in the audience.

They're not now.

STU: Showing, they're billionaires.

GLENN: On a yacht someplace.

STU: I think that's one of the things that's most interesting in a societal sense.

That we had a lot of people. Because the early people into Bitcoin. Not like the people necessarily today.

But the early people into Bitcoin. Were people who generally speaking, were ideologically let's say Libertarian.

Or somewhat close to that.

GLENN: Yes. Correct.

STU: And there are now massive amounts of people, who became insanely wealthy over this process. And continue probably to get even wealthier.

And those people who would have probably been marginalized in society, at some level.

Maybe they would of been successful. But would never have that sort of power.

GLENN: No. They're the losers. Loaners. And creeps.

STU: And we've seen.

I mean, Libertarians, will describe themselves this way.

So we've seen now, that many of these people have made an impact. Right?

We've seen a lot of them. Marc Andreessen. Not necessarily, an ideological Libertarian. A lot of these people have risen.

Two of the richest people in the world. Are the Winklevoss twins. The people who had Facebook stolen from them.

GLENN: I think they're fictional characters.

STU: They may be. They were in a movie once. So I don't know.

GLENN: Sure. Anybody can play them. But I think anybody with Winklevoss as their name. And they're twins. I think it's too magical to be real.

STU: It's hard to believe.

GLENN: It is. It is.

Oh, let's call on the Winklevoss twins.

STU: For everything --

GLENN: Show up. Say their names three times.

Hi, we're here to grant any wish, with our magical Bitcoin.

STU: Right. Consider that they basically had Facebook -- in my opinion, Facebook stolen from them. They wound up getting thrown out.

Got some money for it. Were not insanely wealthy.

Wound up not with one, but two giant revolutions of the world.

They were at the founding of almost -- they invested a fortune in Bitcoin, right after that.

And now were multi-billionaires because of it. It's a weird people that wouldn't have normally been at the top of our society. Are now there. And hopefully, they've kept some of these small government routes, through that process.

And maybe they can Friday the country, in a way --

GLENN: No. No. Because when you get that wealthy. What you do, you know, I can get somebody on the phone.

I can make this happen. I don't want a stop sign here.

And I think we should also kill the poor. I will get both of those done. I will call my council member. And, you know, my master at the WEF.

You know what you know I mean?

You start protecting it, and then that all goes to hell.

STU: Maybe. Who knows?

GLENN: We should do what Star Trek did, and abolish all money. Learn how to live in harmony.

STU: That worked out well for them. They were poor in episode.

What are you talking about?

GLENN: How did they pay for those starships? How ridiculous was that?

FEMA blacklisted CONSERVATIVES? Biden's secret policy EXPOSED

The Left claims that President Trump is weaponizing the federal government following the indictments of former FBI Director James Comey and former Trump national security adviser John Bolton. Ignoring the fact that Biden's FBI tried to jail Trump before the 2024 election, damning evidence has come out that under the Biden administration, the Federal Emergency Management Agency secretly blacklisted conservatives and lowered their priority when it came to FEMA assistance. Where is the outrage?!

Transcript

Below is a rush transcript that may contain errors

GLENN: So they say that Donald Trump has weaponized the government. Okay. Then he turned the DOJ loose on his enemies. He's targeted John Bolton. And obsessed with James Comey. They've said it a million times over and over again.

Without ever asking, you know, who actually held the trigger here?

Okay. But for a moment. Just for the case of this argument, let's just say all of that was true. Let's say Trump had used the power of the state to punish those two people who had crossed him. Okay?

People like Bolton and Comey. Just say, for the sake of argument, that's all true!

These are men who said in the highest rooms of power, they have lawyers. They have money. They have microphones.

If that were true, it would be ugly. It would be dangerous.

And it would be limited!

Because what we just learned from the Department of Homeland Security. Is something far, far worse. This time, the target is not a political rival. It's not a Washington insider. It was you!

There's new news that's coming out today. According to the DHS privacy office report, which was launched after a bunch of whistle-blowers came forward. That now says that FEMA did not mishandle just a few cases.

They kept notes. They were making a list.

They tracked American -- Americans, their political and religious beliefs, during disasters. Not in theory, in black and white.

Let me give you some of the quotes: Angry political rant. Sign in yard states I'm a bitter gun owner, clinging to go my religion. Homeowner had a sign stating, "This is Trump country."

They -- they -- these are not comments, you know, about storm patterns. These are comments about people!

And when these people were flooded, they were homeless, they were desperate, and asked for help from the same government that preaches compassion and equity, they got something entirely different! They got silence. Delay. And sometimes, nothing at all!

The DHS report now confirms, quote, FEMA violated the privacy act of 1974, by collecting and storing data, tied to protected speech.

They were checking bumper stickers and writing you down in a book!

They logged gun signage. Seventy-two times. Trump, 15 times. Firearms, five times. Biden, twice.

The FEMA workers then. And we told you all this. But it was a conspiracy theory. Now it has been proven.

FEMA workers skipped homes, if you had a MAGA flag. Or a yard sign. And then they left notes. There was a political fire. There was a political flier, I'm quoting, so I didn't leave a FEMA brochure.

Quote, we don't recommend anyone visit this location, end quote.

That's not a clerical error here. That's a blacklist!

This is the same agency that airlifts people off of rooftops after hurricanes. That distributes food and shelter.

When nothing else works, and they were told to avoid Americans because who they voted for.

Not terrorists. Not not criminals. Citizens. You!

I will tell you, I have been in disaster after disaster. Much of it not of my own creating.

But natural disaster all over the world!

I've shown up at the hurricanes and the floods and the tornadoes. With help!

And not once did it even occur to me, to ask you, what's your political affiliation?

Not once did it even occur to any of us to say, where do you stand on the Second Amendment?

Who did you vote for?

What do you believe?

What church do you go to?

Never. Do you believe in God?

Never! That is absolutely 100 percent un-American. Un-American.

I read this report, the floods in Florida, and the tornadoes in Tennessee, and the hurricanes in South Carolina. Where people waited for days for aid, that never came!

And when it did come, because of pressure from people like us, survivors. Americans who lost everything received a 700-dollar check.

$700. Meanwhile, billions are being funneled to illegal immigrants.

To foreign wars. To bureaucracies studying climate equity. And now we know why.

Because they were busy making notes about bumper stickers.

I read this, this morning, and I saw it firsthand. But I couldn't prove it. But I saw it firsthand. And I reported on it, at the time.

But they could say, it was an isolated incident. And I could prove otherwise.

We can now. The report is now out.

This is as un-American as our withdrawal in Afghanistan. Why was that so offensive?

Because we -- we left in, A, humiliation.

That's the least of my concerns. We left in humiliation. We betrayed all of our allies. And we left people behind.

We never leave people behind. Never!
That's one of our highest rules! You don't leave people behind!

One of the biggest things about Americans, that we are generous. We are good! We're charitable. We help everybody. We are the world's lifeboat.

And now we find out we had a president, and an administration, that was making a political list. A blacklist. Where they would not give aid to Americans who are suffering!

You're taking my tax dollars, and if I happen to be the one that needs aid, I don't get coverage?

Because of who I voted for?

It's the most offensive thing I've heard of our country ever doing on aid. Ever! Can you -- can you remember anything like this, ever? I mean, they say, "Democracy dies in darkness."

Yeah. Well, why don't I shine a light on some of these things? It doesn't die in darkness, it apparently is dying in databases. The FEMA database quietly flagged citizens as politically undesirable.

Let me ask you this: What would the media have said or done if Donald Trump would had ignored those who lost their homes in California after the ravaging fire?

If he didn't just show up, it would be bad enough. Right?

But he showed up. He brought his cabinet with him! He brought FEMA. He brought relief. He tried to cut all of the red tape in California. Couldn't get that done. But he was there. Can you imagine if he just hadn't have showed up. Which Biden never did. If he hadn't have shown up. Worse yet, can you imagine what would be said, if you had found out, that Donald Trump -- his FEMA was making a list, and saying, they voted for Gavin Newsom. They voted for Joe Biden. No help for them on their house!

Can you imagine the outrage? I would be outraged. I am just as outraged that it happened under the last administration.

Why? Why am I outraged?

Because it cannot happen. It cannot happen under any administration!

You allow this to happen, and stand, good luck, America, on what you have left! Will anything be done? Will anyone go to jail?

Will the left be outraged by this?

You want to talk about no kings? What is a king?

Other than, let that serf die. We don't care about those guys. They aren't for the king!

You know, Mercury One has already rebuilt homes. We are -- we are moving people back into their homes every single day. I know it. Because I watch Mercury One do it. But not in California. We tried in California. Gavin Newsom, the Democrats, they won't help those people. They won't allow any help for those people. Their own voters they don't care about. If you get in the way of this leftist administration, these leftists, it doesn't matter. Ends justify the means. Let them die.

You know, they keep warning you about authoritarianism, but here it is. Cloaked in compassion. Branded with a FEMA logo. This wasn't rogue. Not a rogue agent.

This was not a one-off scandal. This was a database.

The DHS investigation says, political bias was systematic, dating back to at least September 2021.

That means, that while the administration accused conservatives of conspiracy theories, it was literally compiling lists.

And the media went right along with it. And will the media ever tell you this story?

When what was her name, the FEMA administrator Criswell testified before Congress, in 2021, she said, "This was an isolated case."

Well, unfortunately, your files tell a different story. It's not isolated. It was national. And it was deliberate.

Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem said, quote, for years, FEMA employees under the Biden administration intentionally delayed much needed aid to Americans suffering from natural disasters on purely political grounds.

This is not your political enemy! This is your neighbor! That's not mismanagement. That's moral rot!

It's not just another Washington scandal. This is a betrayal of the covenant between citizen and state!

But they're not going to tell you about that. The media won't talk to you about that.

The Democrats won't do a damn thing about it.

None that side will condemn this. You, but they'll talk to you today, about how trump is destroying the White House. Oh, my gosh.

He's destroying the White House.

And he's spending hundreds of millions of dollars on a ballroom of his own money.

And other people who are donating!

And, you know what, they're not donating in secret. It's all listed right there.

They don't go through Arabella advisers or the Tides Foundation.

They give it straight, and it's reported straight. So you know who built that building!

My gosh.

They'll report on the White House today. But they won't report on your house. You know, when FEMA didn't show up because you were on their list. The moment this government decides that you are less worthy of rescue because of how you vote, your faith, your flag, a bumper sticker.

The -- the -- you don't need darkness for democracy dying. The republic is dead!

There is no republic.

A republic represents all voters! It ceases to exist. You do have a king.

You know, weaponizing law enforcement against political opponents is really bad! But weaponizing disaster relief against ordinary citizens, people standing on their roof, waiting for a helicopter that never comes, is something absolutely pitch black dark!

If your politics can determine whether you live or die, we cease to be a republic. We cease -- we cease to deserve the rights God gave us.

WARNING: Will the "AI Bubble" CRASH the Stock Market?

The AI revolution promises to change everything, but what if it’s leading us straight into another financial collapse? Glenn Beck and economist Peter Atwater break down the eerie parallels between today’s AI boom and the 2008 housing crash, revealing how speculative hype, overvalued tech giants, and circular corporate investments are inflating a dangerous bubble. Could this “AI gold rush” be the next market disaster waiting to happen?

Transcript

Below is a rush transcript that may contain errors

GLENN: Is it not a bubble?

I don't know. Are we close to AGI or not close to AGI.

Again, I don't know.

Is it to change things? Yes. I saw a story in our show prep today. I'm not going to get a chance to get it. It's about other countries that are building these giant server farms. Their electricity and their water is being shut off because all of it being diverted to these big server farms. And if we're not careful, that's exactly what's going to happen to us.

Peter Atwater is a guy that Stu and I have been talking about for a while because he's comparing this AI bubble. He's like, "Look, I wanted to show you a chart. I'm not smart enough to figure out the chart. But let me show you a chart, and I want to show you a chart that I did in, like, 2007 or 2008 with the housing bubble! Wow, they kind of look exactly the same. And it's a little frightening."

Peter is with us now. Peter Atwater from the College of William & Mary. He's an adjunct lecturer there. He's the guy who coined the term K-shaped recovery.

Welcome to the program, how are you, sir?

PETER: I'm great, Glenn. Thanks very much for having me.

GLENN: You bet. Okay. So can you explain the housing -- or, not the housing bubble.

The AI bubble. Do you believe it is? And if so, why? And what does that mean?

PETER: I do believe it is.

And I study confidence and its impact on what we do.

And so what I see in the AI bubble is a lot of similarities to what we saw during the housing bubble. Where everybody wants to be involved.

There's a social frenzy to it. There's a want to, you know, make a lot of money, to see the opportunity in it.

There's a lot of speculation.

And what matters so much, to me as a researcher, is that this network that existed in the -- in the housing bubble. Where mortgages were sliced and diced.

And you had these conveyor belts that moved everything from, you know, mom and pop's house to folks all over the world.

GLENN: Right.

PETER: Now, it's within the AI system. Where you have enormous amounts of capital moving, but also equipment.

So it looks a lot like the Just In Time Network that we saw stumble during COVID.

GLENN: Okay. That doesn't make me happy. But there's a difference between the housing bubble, where it was all being inflated and resold and repackaged. And this, which does seem to be a game-changer on productivity. Where housing was not.

This seems to be like it could be a real game changer for economies. Agree or disagree?

PETER: Oh. There's no question, it will be a game changer. But we can think about it the same way we said dot-com was going to be a game changer. Like railroads. And all of these other things that we have in terms of speculative mania.

There's real productivity. Real improvement that comes from it. But what happens is that investors anticipate it happening far sooner, in far larger scale.

And much more profitably than it ever does.

GLENN: So what are you predicting? How is this going to -- how is this going to happen?

What's a bad case scenario, not necessarily worst?

I don't know if I can handle worst. Bad case scenario, and realistic scenarios.

PETER: Yeah. So to me, the realistic scenario is that valuations come down dramatically. At the same time, the build-out continues at a much lower pace.

And eventually, maybe a decade from now, it all settles out.

But in the meantime, there's a lot of financial pain that's going to go along with it. Particularly because today, more than 40 percent of an S&P 500 ties to AI.

GLENN: Like seven companies. Right?

PETER: Seven companies, and -- and the ones that are closest to them. So that, you know, retirees, pension plans, you know, folks that invest in index funds, have a super sized allocation to AI whether they realize it or not.

GLENN: Can you give me an example of this happening in history, that's not housing, but more industry?

PETER: Sure. You can go back to radio. In the -- in the 20s. I mean, RCA was a mammoth weight in the markets. Because people were incredibly excited about it.

You saw it even -- go back even further to canals. We -- we love new technology. Particularly where we can identify the efficiencies that we see coming from it.

STU: One of the things that's really interesting about the trends you've highlighted, Peter, is this sort of circuitous relationship with these companies. It's too complicated to go through all of it.

Just to give you one quick relationship here. And tell me if I'm understanding this right.

OpenAI, of course, buys a bunch of chips from NVIDIA. They're spending a ton of money with NVIDIA. NVIDIA is investing $100 million into OpenAI. OpenAI is -- has a 300 billion-dollar cloud deal with Oracle.

Oracle is spending tens of billions of dollars in chips with NVIDIA. And then NVIDIA is investing into OpenAI. There's a bunch of these arrows, that are pointing in this circular directions. And it seems like companies are flowing money back and forth to each other, and all these arrangements. And you wonder if there's any disruption here.

Are we looking at some sort of short-term collapse of all this stuff.

PETER: The -- the dog eating its tail phenomenon is extraordinary here. And what's so unusual about this one is, in prior bubbles, the -- the conveyor belts were among smaller participants.

But in this one, we had the largest technology companies in the world, to spinning money around, among themselves.

It looked like one of those Esther drawings, where the waterfall just keeps moving in perpetuity. And the challenge, particularly given that OpenAI is at the center of it, is that this is a company that is barely profitable. That is committing to hundreds of billions of dollars in commitments.

STU: Hmm.

GLENN: So what does it look like if it starts to fall apart? And what are the signs we should be watching for?

PETER: So what we know right now, is that everybody wants to be affiliated with AI in some way.

And so you end up with these late arrivals to the party.

And typically when a bubble bursts, the last guy to the party, is the first to leave. When you think of this in the context of a mortgage bubble.

Where it was the subprime lenders who showed up right at the tail end.

And then collapsed first. So I'm -- I'm watching to see these companies that are barely AI-related, that have tried to position themselves as being AI industry leaders. Who are likely to fail in the not too distant future.

They just need rarefied air to exist.

GLENN: Like what companies?

PETER: I don't have specific names to throw out there.

GLENN: Sure. Okay.

PETER: But they're typically smaller highly leveraged offerings. To very, very compelling, but untested technologies.

GLENN: Now, this would be -- I mean, if it collapses, I mean, that would be horrific for our economy.

But also, what -- what happens with the race with China? I mean, China is deeper into this than we are, at like crazy.

How -- how does this affect China, what happens to the race, how does -- I mean, how does this not move forward?

PETER: So I am by no means a China expert, but I would expect that if our confidence in AI begins to fall, confidence in AI more broadly will come under question.

STU: Hmm.

PETER: So they then face questions in terms of policy maker credibility. In terms of, why did you commit so much to this?

No difference than a CEO faces that test, when a bubble bursts.

GLENN: So what does success look like to you?

Because I'm not sure -- I had a really fascinating conversation a couple of weeks ago.

And he's going to come on the show in a couple of weeks with Max Tegmark, who is a brilliant AI ethicist. And we were talking about AI, AGI. And he believes that that may not be happening. And he makes a great case on this.

But is that the goal, or, I mean. Because what -- what is the goal that we're not going to hit, that would fall short?

That would cause this kind of stuff?

PETER: So I think you -- we tend to fall short in terms of immediate usage. So volume short.

But also profitability.

You know, if you go back through dot-com bubble. They all imagined this huge, you know, pot of gold at the end of the rainbow. And you're seeing the same wild fascination with the potential profitability for AI.

And, again, that may come, but it's unlikely too come at the speed and magnitude that people now expect. I mean, we're -- we're fans of science.

GLENN: Boy, I mean, in a way, that would be really, really good.

Because that -- what I worry about is AI advancing as quickly as everybody says it is. And then what happens to all the jobs so quickly. I mean, you just can't absorb that kind of an impact. If it happens that fast. So I don't know which is better.

PETER: So typically, we'll see a backlash against new technology. I mean, if you go back to the 1920 bubble burst. And you saw this backlash to, you know, innovate technologies like the vacuum. And the ironing board. And all these things that people said, took jobs away. Well, we'll have that same thing in all likelihood. And this time, too, to a point you made earlier, likely compounded by a greater awareness of the environmental consequences of this, and also, the cost that it creates in the average consumer, in terms of the utility bills.

GLENN: Hmm.

Can you explain one more thing? Because you're the guy who invented the K-shaped recovery. And as Stu and I talked about the K-shaped recovery -- can you explain that? K-shaped recovery.

PETER: Sure. So when COVID hit, I immediately saw that if you were a white-collar worker who could work from home, your confidence improved immediately. Whereas, if you were a, you know, somebody who worked if a warehouse. Or stocked shelves in the supermarket. Or hospital worker.

Your confidence didn't start to improve for a long time.

And from that, what I have seen is that the economy that results from these two different tracks of confidence, are vastly different.

And today, those are the top, whether it's because of the markets, or because of corporate earnings, growth. Those at the top feel invulnerable.

And they're spending like it. They're investing like it. They're living like it. They're living like there's no tomorrow.

Well, on the other hand, those at the bottom today, aren't sure how they will make it through the take. They're delinquent on their car loans. They're now worried about health care costs. And so to me, this K that -- this divide has created two classes of Americans.

You have the increasingly desperate, and those who feel invulnerable.

GLENN: That does not sound stable long-term.

PETER: It doesn't feel stable to me too.

And I worry that those who are in a position to do something about it, we're spending so much of our time in this country, fighting between the left and the right, and we're not seeing that our biggest divide is up and down.

That those at the bottom, there's a bipartisan hopelessness that exists.

GLENN: Hmm.

PETER: That I feel like Washington is not paying enough attention to.

THE GLENN BECK PODCAST

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Watch Glenn Beck's FULL Interview with Matt & Maxim Smith HERE

Are young men prepared for a future dominated by AI, surveillance, and shifting societal rules? Glenn Beck sits down with Matt and Maxim Smith to explore how young men can reclaim their agency and build real-life skills in an uncertain and ever-changing world.

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Trump told me why he's "DESTROYING" the White House...

Construction for President Trump's ballroom has begun on the East Wing of the White House, and every Democrat in America has lost their mind. Does the President have the authority to alter a historic structure like the White House? Glenn and Stu discuss, as Glenn shares the story where he reveals even Trump was shocked at how easy it was to get the alterations approved.

Transcript

Below is a rush transcript that may contain errors

STU: Well, you still haven't really addressed why Donald Trump for is knocking down the White House for his own --

GLENN: Well, he just hates America.

STU: That's -- what I've been reading. Yeah.

GLENN: Right. And how crazy excited the left should be that he's knocking down something built by slaves. They're like, we've got to preserve that.

Slaves made that!

It's weird.

STU: I actually do have questions about this though.

GLENN: What? What question do you have?

STU: Well, and they come from, you know, everybody's source of thinking these days. Which are group texts.

GLENN: Uh-huh.

STU: I'm on with some friends. I have some really basic questions of like, I feel like, there would be a conversation and a bill passed if we're going to put a giant new building at the White House.

GLENN: No.

STU: That's not how it works at all.

Is it? How's it work? How does this work?

GLENN: You ready? So the president says, I want to change the White House.

STU: Okay.

GLENN: And the White House architect says, how would you like to change it?

And he says, this way. And they say, okay.

Well, you need to approve all the permits. Okay. I approve all the permits.

Okay. We change it. That's literally how it happens.

STU: Really? They can do anything they want.

GLENN: Well, I mean, within reason.

When I say within reason.

I think with restraint from public outcry.

Like, I want to paint the White House black.

Well, you know, as president, you can do whatever you want.

But I don't think that will fly with the American people.

STU: Hmm.

GLENN: So there some standards in there. I will tell you about a conversation I had with Trump next.
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(OUT AT 10:29 AM)

GLENN: Welcome to the Glenn Beck Program. We're glad you're here.

Thank you so much for listening. You know, Stu has been freaking out about the White House.

STU: I'm not -- I'm not freaking out. I just think it's an interesting. I thought there would be more of a process to something like this.

GLENN: No.

STU: Because I certainly was not think at this point, the American people understand what is about to happen. Which is like, the White House is about to double in size.

GLENN: Uh-huh.

STU: My -- just by my eyeball look at it.

It looks like it will maybe be more than two times the size.

GLENN: It's going to be large! But it's not the actual White House. It's part of the east wing.

STU: That's -- that's a totally misleading commentary.

GLENN: No. It's not.

GLENN: Because the White House is the original piece from the 1700s. Okay?

That's the center house. The east wing and the West Wing was not done until FDR. They were added later.

STU: It was a big deal.

GLENN: The biggest change in the White House since FDR. And happened in our lifetime. Right after 9/11.

The White House became enormous. But it was all underground.

STU: Okay.

GLENN: They completely changed everything underground.

STU: Yes.

GLENN: And we didn't have a conversation about that at all.

STU: Because it's underground!

I assume all sorts of things are happening underground. Our well-known monuments and buildings.

GLENN: Right. Sure.

STU: But this is -- this is -- it's not a -- they keep saying this.

They're going to be changed the West Wing.

GLENN: No. The East Wing.

STU: They're going to be changing the East Wing. That's not what they're doing. This is like doubling the size of the White House.

Now, I'm not opposed to that idea.

I'm just sort of surprised that it wasn't like a big conversation and a bill.

GLENN: All right. Okay. Okay. You ready?

So was Donald Trump.

STU: What do you mean?

GLENN: So I'm in the White House with him. And I'm up in the private quarters with him.

And he is showing me some things that he is doing. And talking to me about some other things that I can't talk about. Because he doesn't want.

I don't know.

STU: He doesn't want to discuss it.

GLENN: I didn't want to discuss it. And I don't know why.

Because it's all really good stuff.

So, anyway, we're taking about it. And then he brings up the ballroom.

And we're walking down the stairs, from the residents, and we're going into the ballroom.

And he says, you know, this is the ballroom that Abraham Lincoln had dinners here.

I said, you know, it's that window over there, that Fredrick Douglass had to open up the window and had to crawl in because they wouldn't let him in because he was black. And Abraham Lincoln was like, let him in. He's my friend. Why is coming through the window?

And we were talking about all the history of the ballroom. And that it's very, very small.

Because it was built in the 1700s. And we keep using that ballroom. And he's like, we have to have a bigger ballroom.

We have it out in the wet, and the cold and the rain. Yada, yada, yada.

And so he said, we come over to a window. And he's like, right there, I will build a big, beautiful ballroom.

And it's going to better than anybody thinks. It's going to be the biggest, most beautiful ballroom. And I'm just trying not to laugh. Because that's the way he describes it.

And he said, you know, surprised that I could do that.

And I said, I bet. How long is that going to take? What's that process like?

And he's like, right. That's what I asked.

He said, I went to the -- I went to the -- I don't know, chief usher or somebody. Whoever is in charge of the White House. I think it's the chief usher. He said, I think we should have a ballroom. He's like, what do I do?

And he said, well, you just have to talk to the architect.

So he went to the White House architect. Now, this is a guy who makes sure the integrity of the White House stays. Okay?

You can't make it into a modern house. Okay? You're not going to redesign the inside. You can add some gold I guess.

You can add a lot of gold, I guess. You can't make it into. You can't wreck the integrity of the White House.

And he said, you know, I just put these flagpoles in. And he's like, all I had to say was, I want to put some flagpoles in.

He said, yes, sir. Where?

He's like, what?

One in the front. One in the back. They were like, okay. Tell us where.

We went out into the yard. Right here. Right there.

And they put them up. And so he's talking to the White House architect. And he said, we've got to have a ballroom. And I think we should have it over here in the East Wing. A big, beautiful -- and he said, but what is this going to take?

And he's like, well, it's going to be very expensive. Are you expecting the people to pay?

And he's like, no, I'll raise the money for it. I'll pay for it, and I'll raise the money, extra, so American people are not going to pay for it.

And the architect said, well, then all you have to do is sign the permits.

And he's like, what?

And he said, well, you have to go through the permitting process.

He's like, how long will that take?

He said, well, the President is the one who controls the process and signs the permits. So as on short as you would like it to be, Mr. President.

And he's like, are you kidding me? And he looked at me, he's like, I'll have this done by spring of next year.

So he can change it. The -- what you have to understand is, the -- the east wing and the West Wing, those -- those are FDR.

So FDR went into a works project. And he added those wings.

The east wing is where the first lady's offices are.

Just the east wing is like, you know, it's -- it's just the east wing.

And it's --

STU: Okay. Shade of the east wing?

GLENN: Yeah. Yeah. But anyway, and so what he's doing is he's taking some of it town, and he's going to link it to the ballroom. And the bail room is going to be the biggest, beautiful ballroom in Washington DC.

It's going to link from there. So you will walk -- if you're in the White House, you will walk from the front door, through the -- the dining room.
Or, the east dining room. You'll go into the East Wing, and you'll go to the ballroom.

STU: I'm looking -- I'm at the renderings as we speak. And that's exactly --

GLENN: I've not even seen the renderings. Just describe it to me. Can I see it?

STU: No. They're mine. This is my computer.

GLENN: Okay.

STU: This is the -- I can't obviously show it to the people here. You can see it over here.

GLENN: Okay. It's big, beautiful. What a surprise, the tables are golden.

STU: By the way, it's different --

GLENN: That's amazing. Holy cow.

STU: My conversation about whether this is the -- the -- you can't. It's already zoomed in. They're not the best images.

Here.

GLENN: There's nothing wrong with that. What is wrong with that? It looks just like the White House.

It fits. It's appropriate.

STU: I was in the middle of saying. It's -- my conversation on this is not whether it is -- looks good or is appropriate or anything like.

I actually think his point on the ballroom is so obvious, every president should have been making it.

The fact that we don't have a big room to have state dinners in.

GLENN: Right.

STU: Unless you wanted to do them off campus everywhere else.

You have to have that, and why not have it at the White House. It makes a lot of sense.

GLENN: Except, I don't want to pay for it, as a citizen. I don't want a dime going for it.

You know what? Hey, all you Frenchies, you can eat on the lawn. Literally, on the lawn.

Just throw the food out on the lawn.

Yeah, I mean, I'm fine with that.

But if he wants to pay for it. If he wants to get rich people to pay for it, go for it.

I don't want any of my tax dollars going for it.

STU: Right. So my criticism is not how it looks. And that we need it.

We actually showed the inside of it. It seems like the facility we should have for these type of events.

We're going to have them somewhere. Why not have them there?

GLENN: Right. And who better to build it than one of the best builders of all time.

STU: Donald Trump. We've had this conversation about how you project American power.

GLENN: Yes.

STU: And I think Trump's approach to -- particularly in the Middle East. I think it's been effective around the world. Of these trappings actually are effective in diplomatic relations with other nations. Donald Trump has a lot of places that are lined in gold. That can have meetings. It's not like that's what he wants it for. The left tries to portray. Of course, he does.

No. It means something to him. And he knows how these people think.

GLENN: No. No.

Because I asked. I -- I won't tell the whole story.

But I really want to, really desperately.

STU: Hmm.

GLENN: But, you know, he's gilding everything.

And that's not necessarily my favorite look.

STU: Right.

GLENN: And -- and he -- he came in, Tania and I were alone in the Oval for a while. And we were talking about it.

And he comes in. He says, you know, I'm doing all of this.

You see all the gold? Yes. You can't miss it. You can't miss the gold.

And he's like, you know, it's so important. These foreign leers, they all come from palaces. And they don't understand. And I know, you know, the White House is different. America is different. But they understand power in a different way.

And he said, they are coming from these old countries. And these big buildings.

And these palaces.

And he said, it is important for us to project power.

STU: Yes!

GLENN: And that's -- and that is why he's doing this. Not because he likes gold. He's doing it to project power and wealth.

Notice how many prime ministers.

They're all flying in all the time, from all over the world. You know, I've never seen a president meet with so many foreign dignitaries in the White House all the time!

STU: Yeah. And the media likes to say, well, that's because he's self-important.

And he's --

GLENN: No. He's projecting American power.

STU: Yes. I think so too.

When I say it's important to him.

That's why it's important to him.

He believes it's an important tool in that world.

GLENN: Correct. It's not him.

He knows the language they speak. And not just body language or, you know, spoken language.

All of the entire -- that's what protocol is all about. It all means something.

STU: And so my criticism -- and it's not even criticism.

My observation is not whether it fits. Or whether we need it, or whether it's appropriate.

My -- I don't think my observation here in the group text, that we started this with, which is that, holy crap.

I don't think the American people have any idea what's about to happen. Like every time I bring this up to Glenn.

And we have to understand how these conversations work.

I say, people will look at the White House. And it will be totally different.

He's like, oh, president Tyler did on more than that. In 1940 -- shut up!

That's what I get from Glenn.

Oh, well, there was more changes underground. You don't understand the piping -- that he totally changed the -- the -- the piping back in 1807. You moron!

Okay. I'm sorry.

I didn't know that. What I think of. And, you know, FDR made these changes.

My whole life, it's been the same, pretty much from the outside.

I know what the White House looks like. You go up there, I look at the White House.

It looks like the White House.

It is not going to look like the White House when this is over. It is going to look like the White House plus another White House next to it.

And it's going to be, I think, massively impressive. But I'm surprised there's not more conversation about this.

GLENN: When was the last time you were in Washington, DC?

STU: The inauguration.

GLENN: So you would not believe the difference in the White House grounds.

STU: Hmm.

GLENN: The difference from, you know, when I went with George Bush.

You could stand right at the front gate.

STU: Right.

GLENN: You can't do that anymore.

They've taken the park. The park in the back is all gone.

The security --

STU: Just for security.

GLENN: Everything. All of the trees. Everything that has been done to not see the White House.

Except, for that iconic front.

STU: Yeah.

GLENN: You know what I mean?

Everything is -- is not really -- you don't see it like you used to anymore. You don't walk up to it.

STU: The last -- I was in town for the inauguration. Last time I actually walked by the White House.

It's been a long time.

GLENN: Oh, you would not.

You will not recognize it.

I mean, just driving by and seeing it.

You will get pictures and everything else. But walking by it.

Today, you wouldn't recognize it.

It's -- it's -- what has -- what has happened with security is so sad. When I have the bell from the White House front desk, they're will it used to be a little desk right in the front, right as you walk in. There was a desk, and a bell. And I -- I have it. I think it is from Tyler's, you know, administration.

STU: Of course.

GLENN: And you would walk in. And you would hit the bell. And you would say, I want to see the president.

And somebody would say, okay. All right. Sit over there.

And you would wait. And you might wait all day, but you got -- you can walk in without an appointment and see the president of the United States.

You're not getting within two blocks of the White House right now.

It's sad. It's sad what's happening.

STU: Yeah. And for good. I wouldn't disagree with that either.

It's for good reason, security-wise.

I think back, the classic. I think what everybody thinks of when they think of the White House.

Is the scene from Superman two.

GLENN: Try to remember.

STU: When they showed the White House. And it's supposed to be -- it's a motion picture.

But they were too lazy to actually get video footage of the White House.

So it's just a still.

And you can tell, because there's like things that should be moving. That aren't moving. Right.

GLENN: Is that because --

STU: I think that's Superman.

GLENN: On Independence Day, they blew it up.

STU: But that's another example.

You had that picture of what the White House looked like. And, you know, I guess from certain angles, it looks pretty much the same. From the front. You won't notice it. Because it's kind of wrapped around the back. The back is pretty iconic too.

It's not going to look like that anymore.

In some ways, it will look a lot better or impressive.

It is a major change. That when you say, hey, they're redoing the West Wing, putting a ball room in there. That's not what they're doing.

GLENN: East.

STU: Sorry, East. I hate Glenn.

GLENN: I'm only saying it because I know how much he hates it.