RADIOApril 19, 2024

Bitcoin Halving EXPLAINED: Will This One Be DIFFERENT?

The Bitcoin halving is here, but what is this event and will it be different from previous ones? Glenn and Stu explain what a Bitcoin halving is, what usually happens, and why some believe there won’t be a spike in Bitcoin value this time around. But are they right? Or is it still a good time to buy?

Transcript

Below is a rush transcript that may contain errors

GLENN: Hey, today is Bitcoin. What they call the havoc. Right?

STU: Happy havoc day, to those who celebrate. Yes. Ten hours away from now, it looks like.

GLENN: It sounds like something that would maybe happen, in -- what was that?

That film happened in Norway. It was like that summer festival.

It's like the halving, and they're all gathered in some beautiful place.

STU: Yes. What was that movie?

What was that? It was very -- it was one I wouldn't watch.

GLENN: It was creepy.

It could have been called the Halving.

Or, you know, When Magic Goes Bad. David Copperfield stars in the Halving. Now, I have to cut this woman in half. And he can't put her back. Maybe I don't --

STU: That would be a good plot. That's not what the halving is for Bitcoin though.

GLENN: Yeah.

STU: And you've seen the price go up. There's been various reasons for that over the past year.

The ETFs. Meaning a lot of money is flowing into Bitcoin for the first time, really. That is a big catalyst of it.

The other is the halving, which happens, what? Every four years.

You don't know exactly what will happen. As they get closer and closer, they can specify.

And it will be today, at some point. About ten hours from now.

GLENN: And what does it mean exactly?

STU: Basically, when Bitcoin started. You have to have miners with, who are going to mine the Bitcoin to kind of bring it into availability for everybody.

GLENN: And you knew this would involve minors.

STU: No, it's not like Jeffrey Epstein. Think of a coal miner, except digitally.

GLENN: Different kind of miner. Okay. All right. What are they wearing? Are they wearing pants?

STU: That's not important. That's not important. By the way, Bitcoin miners know they're not wearing pants. They're in their underwear in their mother's basement. At least that's how it started. It was people in their underwear in their mom's basement, basically. And they were mining tons and tons of Bitcoin.

Now, remember, Bitcoin, there will only ever be 21 million of them. They are sort of -- think of them being mined. They are slowly mined, this time, I think we've mined, 2140. I don't know. It's a long way. But the basic idea with the halving, is every four years the reward for the miners gets cut in half. So the reason that's important, is the supply shrinks.

So maybe, you go back years and years and years. There's tons and tons of Bitcoin going on. Getting mined every single day.

Now, that number gets cut in half.

It was like each block, which is about every ten minutes.

Each one of those, it was six Bitcoin. Were freed into the world.

Like released into the world.

Now it's like three. It shrinks every four years. 1.75. 1.5. Or 1.25. It's not exact numbers.

GLENN: Until it gets to zero and there's no more Bitcoin left.

STU: And that's at 21 million Bitcoin. So you are now at -- I think it's six to three, roughly, in this particular halving. And the other part about the halving that has been important to note, is every time, there has been one, over the next six months, there has been a massive increase in the prophesy Bitcoin. Now, will this happen this time? No one knows. Past performance is not indicative of future results, we all know the disclaimer.

GLENN: We really do know that disclaimer. You may not know that disclaimer, but we do.
STU: Yes. Very true.

GLENN: The views of Stu are not necessarily those of the host.

STU: This is not financial advice.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. We don't know. We have also had a very large rise over the past year. So some people theorized, it's already built in.

Right?

This time, the rise we've already had, is basically part of what the halving would bring. However, when you look at the charts over the past three or four or five halvings. We've had massive increases. All those times, where all of a sudden, everyone around you, was talking about Bitcoin. Almost all those periods happened between six months.

Three to nine months after a halving.

GLENN: After. Not before.

STU: Well, you've seen some rises before. Generally, speaking, the real pop has happened after.

GLENN: This has been a real pop. This brought us back to where it was.

STU: There's a reason to believe, there's more here. Again, the last one was in 2020. Do you remember the 2021 phenomenon?

Then you had a drop back down. We are now down back to where we were, 2021.

GLENN: Making a case that somebody should buy, just a fraction of Bitcoin.

STU: Okay.

GLENN: I mean, you know, when it first started, and everybody was on board. Everybody was buying Bitcoin.

Because it was like, I have three Bitcoin. You know.

STU: Yep.

GLENN: And now, most people cannot afford to buy -- no.

STU: Of course not. Let me put it this way.

Right now, you would say, Bitcoin, $60,000. Basically, it's only for a millionaire.

Someone who wants tons of money, who will throw into a Bitcoin.

You might say only millionaires can afford that.

You might say something like that. Think of it this way, there are 24.5 million millionaires just in the United States.

GLENN: 24.5 million millionaires.

STU: Yes. Right. Right now, there will never be enough Bitcoin for every millionaire in the United States to own one. That doesn't include millionaires around the world. There are already too many millionaires for just millionaires to get one of these things.

GLENN: How much of it do you think is lost? Permanently, forever, lost.

STU: Permanently. Like, for example, we know the Satoshi's account. Which, the guy who invented Bitcoin. We don't know who it is. Group of people. Or if he's dead. I think they're dead. That's my opinion. He has an account with 1 million of it, in it, that's never moved.

So we basically know, unless this guy reveals himself somehow in the future. Which is not likely, that a million of them are lost. We also know, early on, people were mining these things and getting thousands and tens of thousands of them. And just losing -- turning their computer off. And not thinking they were worth anything.

The estimates are that probably something like a third of them are lost forever. So instead of 21 million, maybe it's 14 million. Maybe it's 15 million.

Somewhere in that vicinity. Now that they're valuable, people are not losing them, of course. At least as often. It's still happening every day.

People screw it up. They lose it.

They send it to the wrong account. That stuff still happens. But you're probably talking about, let's say 15 million, that actually will exist.

You have 24.5 millionaires in the United States. In the world, you have about 60 million millionaires. So if you split up all the Bitcoin in the world, just among millionaires, they can only get a quarter of one each.

Now, if you can put some in there. The idea that these things will go down in value.

Over the very long-term. To me, is unlikely.

And part of that is, at the beginning of this, nobody knew. Right?

Like when I first invested in Bitcoin. And I don't have a lot of money in Bitcoin. But when I first started in Bitcoin. My thought was, I'm going to throw some money in this, let's see what happens.

I have absolutely no idea.

My thought was, there's a good chance. I said this to you, at the time. There's a good chance it goes to zero. It was a total gamble. I had no idea.

I liked the concept of money that can't be inflated and printed. Right?

I like that concept. That's why I was interested in it.

But, I mean, how many multi-trillion dollar industries can you remember going to zero?

I mean, is there any example of this?

GLENN: White star line. This has I don't think they were worth trillions. Right?

Enron was a big company, right?

Don't remember it being worth trillions. Bitcoin's market cap is over a trillion dollars.

GLENN: No. I can't see it going to zero. Unless all the central banks in the world say, not --

STU: It's so resistant to that right now. Though.

GLENN: I know.

STU: We're seeing countries open up. And start accepting it. You know, the United States of America, has now accepted Bitcoin ETFs. That's a huge embrace of this technology.

And look, I don't know. I can't tell you, it won't go down in the future. I would be surprised if it never goes down below these levels again. It probably will.

So you might buy today. And at some point, be down.

A lot of people bought in 2021. And thought, oh, my gosh, I've lost all my money.

Except, now pretty much every person who has ever bought Bitcoin in its history, if they held on to it, is either about even or up.

GLENN: Everybody. Even the people who bought at the very peak.

STU: Everybody. Yeah, unless you bought like a couple of months ago, when it hit 69-70 for a couple of days. There's a few people.

But generally speaking, almost no one who has ever purchased this and kept it, has lost money.

And that's that's quite a statement. Again, what other investments can you point to, that has that type of record?

There's almost none. So I don't know. You don't know what the future holds, but man, this is a technology that has proved itself incredibly resilient.

GLENN: I get really pissed at you, every time we talk about this. Every time.

STU: You get pissed at me.

Why are you pissed at me?

GLENN: Yes, I do. I blame you for bad decisions. Blame you.

STU: Why?

GLENN: I was with Marc Andreessen.

STU: Yes.

GLENN: It might have even been a fraction of a cent.

STU: It was before -- well before I bought it. That's for sure.

Because I remember the conversation.

GLENN: Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.

And he's going to start some new thing with this new currency.

STU: Yeah. I remember you telling me this, at the time. I fortunately, did not listen.

GLENN: Yeah. Neither did I. Neither did I.

And we could have put hundred dollars in it, at this point.

STU: Oh, my gosh.

$100. Do you know how much that would be worth?

GLENN: It was a fraction of a cent. Wasn't it?

STU: I don't remember if it was that low, but it was really early.

GLENN: It was right as he started the digital wallet.

Coinbase. It was right as he started it.

STU: Gosh. This makes me physically ill.

GLENN: I think he actually told me that before he started it.

Or he may have --

STU: In the middle of making money or whatever.

GLENN: Yeah. He said, do you know anything about Bitcoin. You should invest.

Just take $5,000. And just throw it in this. And I'm like, uh-huh.

And I -- at the time, $5,000 was -- you know.

STU: You would probably be a billionaire.

GLENN: I would be.

STU: I can't imagine how many you would have -- I love this story.

GLENN: Well, look it up. Look it up.

Look up when they opened Coinbase.

And what the price of Bitcoin was. $5,000.

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Ten-second station ID.
(music)

GLENN: So go ahead.

STU: What?

GLENN: Why he didn't you invest in it? You're always -- you're that kind of guy. You know, I just threw some money in it. Why didn't you --

STU: I mean, I think I did. I just didn't do it as early as that.

Again, I wish I had invested more. Then I wouldn't have to be sitting here with you every day. It would be a dream.

GLENN: If I had a time machine, that's the only thing I would change. And for that reason. I would go back in time.

STU: You would make me -- you actually wouldn't mind making me a billionaire, just so I wouldn't have to be here every day?

GLENN: Yeah. Yeah. That's the kind of guy I am.

STU: How about this, I'll it do for 10 mil right now. Get some financing.

So it depends. It's hard to know exactly when you talk to him. The Coinbase started in 2012. Coinbase is a little later, when you're talking a fraction of a cent, so it was about ten bucks in 2020 -- when it actually started selling Bitcoin. When Coinbase began that process, it was about ten bucks.

If you spent $5,000 then, you would have had about 500 Bitcoin, which would be worth $32.5 million. Which would be incredibly nice. However, my remembrance of this story was, it was before -- before that. When it was sort of being dreamt up.

So it could have been.

GLENN: It was one of the first times I've ever heard of Bitcoin. And I think I came back to you. And I said, what is Bitcoin?

And you were like, well, people buy pizzas with it.

STU: This is ridiculous history.

GLENN: That's exactly what he said.
STU: I don't think I knew much of anything. I had heard of it. But I didn't know anything about it at that time -- I definitely was not discouraging you in investing $5,000. That's exactly how you remember it.

GLENN: That's exactly how I remember it, Your Honor.

STU: And one fascinating thing I think that really hasn't fully taken -- taken root yet when it comes to the Bitcoin phenomenon.

GLENN: By the way, hang on just a second. I just have to say something. I said at the time. I said that, on the air too.

STU: Oh, really?

We should go back and find it.

We can probably find it.

GLENN: Marc Andreessen. He's at Bitcoin.

Blah, blah, blah. But Warren Buffett. He says, if you don't understand it, you shouldn't invest in it.

STU: Where did you find that?

GLENN: I wonder if anybody. If anybody did it.

What our earliest time was, when we said. Hey, maybe you should throw some money into it.

I don't know if I will do it. If anybody in the audience. Of course, there was somebody that was in the audience.

They're not now.

STU: Showing, they're billionaires.

GLENN: On a yacht someplace.

STU: I think that's one of the things that's most interesting in a societal sense.

That we had a lot of people. Because the early people into Bitcoin. Not like the people necessarily today.

But the early people into Bitcoin. Were people who generally speaking, were ideologically let's say Libertarian.

Or somewhat close to that.

GLENN: Yes. Correct.

STU: And there are now massive amounts of people, who became insanely wealthy over this process. And continue probably to get even wealthier.

And those people who would have probably been marginalized in society, at some level.

Maybe they would of been successful. But would never have that sort of power.

GLENN: No. They're the losers. Loaners. And creeps.

STU: And we've seen.

I mean, Libertarians, will describe themselves this way.

So we've seen now, that many of these people have made an impact. Right?

We've seen a lot of them. Marc Andreessen. Not necessarily, an ideological Libertarian. A lot of these people have risen.

Two of the richest people in the world. Are the Winklevoss twins. The people who had Facebook stolen from them.

GLENN: I think they're fictional characters.

STU: They may be. They were in a movie once. So I don't know.

GLENN: Sure. Anybody can play them. But I think anybody with Winklevoss as their name. And they're twins. I think it's too magical to be real.

STU: It's hard to believe.

GLENN: It is. It is.

Oh, let's call on the Winklevoss twins.

STU: For everything --

GLENN: Show up. Say their names three times.

Hi, we're here to grant any wish, with our magical Bitcoin.

STU: Right. Consider that they basically had Facebook -- in my opinion, Facebook stolen from them. They wound up getting thrown out.

Got some money for it. Were not insanely wealthy.

Wound up not with one, but two giant revolutions of the world.

They were at the founding of almost -- they invested a fortune in Bitcoin, right after that.

And now were multi-billionaires because of it. It's a weird people that wouldn't have normally been at the top of our society. Are now there. And hopefully, they've kept some of these small government routes, through that process.

And maybe they can Friday the country, in a way --

GLENN: No. No. Because when you get that wealthy. What you do, you know, I can get somebody on the phone.

I can make this happen. I don't want a stop sign here.

And I think we should also kill the poor. I will get both of those done. I will call my council member. And, you know, my master at the WEF.

You know what you know I mean?

You start protecting it, and then that all goes to hell.

STU: Maybe. Who knows?

GLENN: We should do what Star Trek did, and abolish all money. Learn how to live in harmony.

STU: That worked out well for them. They were poor in episode.

What are you talking about?

GLENN: How did they pay for those starships? How ridiculous was that?

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Could Trump’s “warrior dividends” CHANGE the economy?

President Trump has announced he is giving our troops “warrior dividends” of $1,776 each from the money raised by his tariffs. Glenn and Stu debate whether this is a good idea. Also…what are the odds that the Republicans will cave on Obamacare subsidies?

Transcript

Below is a rush transcript that may contain errors

GLENN: So something the president said yesterday, that I thought was really, really good. Because it will make a difference. And it's not a redistribution of wealth. He talked about his warrior dividend.

He said, every -- the 1.45 million military personnel are going to receive $1,776 before Christmas. And he says, it's recognition for their service and sacrifice.

He says, it's one time. It's coming from tariffs because of the big, beautiful bill. Tonight, I'm proud to announce, more than 1.45 million service members will receive a special we call warrior dividend. Warrior dividend in honor of our nation's founding in 1776. We're sending every soldier $1,776. The checks are already on the way.

I think this is better than choosing another group of people. You know, who is poor? And let's give them the money. I don't like when the government hands out money. But if anybody -- I mean, they're already on the payroll, and they're underpaid. And if anybody can use it, it's the military. $1,700 is a huge amount for most people in the military. Gigantic amount. That will make an actual impact in the people's lives, who I think actually deserve. You know, we -- we don't do enough for our military. And so it's the best kind of -- I don't know. Stimulus package I've ever seen. Although, this isn't a stimulus package, I don't think. Even though, these people are going to pump it into -- I can guarantee you, they will get it, and they will use it on their family for Christmas. Which, you know, will stimulate the economy so much.
Warrior Dividends. How did you feel about that, Stu?

STU: A bit conflicted for a few reason. I obviously 100 percent agree with you that our military members deserve more money, and I'm excited they're going to get it. And I have no -- my feeling on that from a general perspective is very, very positive. Like, if we're going to give money to anybody.
GLENN: Likewise.

STU: Our military is great.

GLENN: Yep.

STU: So that's obvious.

But I had a couple of concerns. One being, you know, we're not exactly at a place where we just have tons of extra money lying around to -- you know, to throw around to people.

I know the argument is with tariffs that we have enough. But, of course, that only pays for a slight amount of our deficit, right know

So we still -- this is all money that we don't actually have. Number one. And number two, my -- I don't really understand. Maybe you have a better understandings of this. But like my understanding of the mechanism of how we spent money as the government is that Congress passes a bill to allocate money.

When you're talking about a policy like this. And I think the president's heart.

GLENN: You got rid of that under Obama.

STU: I don't think.

Well, I didn't get rid of it.

GLENN: You did. Congress. I know. It's still the law of the land.

But nobody is paying attention to it anymore.

Congress doesn't even pay attention to it anymore.

They don't seem to care.

STU: And the other thing with this part of it, particularly, Glenn. Is quite obviously, there would be very little resistence to a bill that did this.

If you put a bill in front of Congress that said, we're going to give a bonus of $1,776 to all our military members. I would love to do it, just to dare the Democrats to vote against it.

Take all the concerns out about spending. This obviously would pass. Because no one would have the balls to vote against it. Outside of Rand Paul, and Thomas Massie.

Like, there would be a couple people. But it would be pretty limiteds.

GLENN: Right.

GLENN: So it could have gone through the normal processes. I don't know if Trump is saying, I want to be -- I want to dare someone to try to stop me here.

Or if it's just, look, there's a pile of money in a military budget somewhere. That he can move around. And he has control of it, because he's commander-in-chief.

I don't really understand the mechanisms.

So I have some questions of that. Generally speaking, when you're thinking of the most offensive things that the government does, giving our military more money is nowhere near the top of that list.

GLENN: It's not one. It's not it. Not it. Not it. They deserve it. They deserve it.

Now, the Republicans pass something. I love this. They just passed their health care plan.
Which is just staying with Obamacare without re-upping the insurance part of it. So they're not for the subsidies. It's not going to pass. It's not going to pass.

This is just something that they pass in the House. It will not be passed in the Senate. Not going to go to the President's desk.

Here's what's going to happen: You're going to see the House and the Senate. No. No, no. Let me rephrase that.

I started that with a lie. While you're not paying attention this Christmas, you will not see, but it will happen, anyway, the House and the Senate will re-up the insurance subsidies, and they will pass this health care thing while nobody is paying attention. And then it will be over.

I mean, that's exactly what's going to happen. There's not a chance we come back and on January 5th, and we say, oh, my gosh. Look! Wow. They're going to close down the government. Because they didn't pass this health care thing.

Well, good for the Republicans for having a spine and standing up!

No! Not going to happen. Not going to happen

STU: It does appear, the chance of the Republicans folding here, is approaching 1 trillion percent.

I don't know. We're having major inflation numbers.

GLENN: I would say 38 trillion. 38 trillion percent.

Yeah.

STU: There you go. I don't know. Because basically what has happened is enough Republicans have already folded on this, for a three-year extension of the subsidies. Which again, is a giveaway on top of the normal Obamacare to make it Obamacare turbo and lock in even higher subsidies because the old Obamacare plan failed. So that's what we're talking about here. So going back to Obamacare as passed is now the worst thing in the world to even the Democrats. Fascinating!

But they have enough Republicans who have changed sides on this. And they are now -- the Democrats have enough votes to force a vote on this bill, which almost definitely will pass the House. Because they already have the votes, and others Republicans will want to now change sides, if there's a public vote. So it will likely pass there.

It's the possible, obviously, that they stop it in the Senate. They could stop it in the Senate.

I don't know. I don't think there's much appetite to stop this, honestly, at the end of the day.

You know, you probably will have a chance of doing it, at the Senate. That's the best chance.

My guess is, what happens. Once the pressure is there, they find a way to maybe adjust it and do a year or something like that, that gets them past the election.

But, of course, what happens this a year. We all know what happens in a year. It's the same thing that will happen this year.It the same thing that happened four years ago, when the first part of this bill went away.

In 2022. Or 2021. They came in and said, okay. Let's extend it for four more years. My guess is, there will probably be some adjustments to this plan. I don't expect at all, for Republicans to hold the line this. Not only do they not want to get rid of Obamacare. They don't even want to get rid of Obamacare turbo. They passed this thing yesterday, which does give them the argument to say, hey. We did pass some of it.

We do have a plan, it's right here. But that's all of it.

GLENN: Stu. Understand the reality. Understand the reality.

We can't get things done unless we have the House and the Senate and the White House and the Supreme Court.

So we just have to wait until we have a time when -- what?

STU: Glenn, I have breaking news.
We've got all that! We've got all of that right now.
GLENN: Well, but it's not. Yeah. It's not as big as we need it, really.

STU: Oh, yeah.

GLENN: We have to have the House, the Senate, the White House, and the Supreme Court. But we have to have more than what we said, when we said those things.

We just need those -- you know, all three branches of government. We need all three branches of government, but more.

It's like we need -- we need that turbo, kind of like Obamacare turbo.

It's never quite enough to get the job done.

STU: Never is, Glenn.

I really do expect, if we have a nine-zero Supreme Court, the presidency, and 534 combined Congress men and senators, we can't do this with this guy over here. There's one Democrat in Congress. We can't do this! That's exactly what I would expect.

GLENN: Stand in the way.

STU: It's pathetic. But it reminds you that your goals are not their goals.

You know, that's what -- I keep coming back to. Forever, Glenn when we started this show. I started the show very young. I was in my early 20s. Didn't really understand lots of things. I was unfortunately running from you, which obviously turned into a catastrophe.

But, you know, as I learned here, at the beginning, my thought was, us as conservatives, as Republicans, as the right, agree on a lot of different things. And there are disagreements as to how we get there, right?

There are sometimes people think we need to kind of fold, or we need to compromise. And we have to move slowly.

And some other people there, saying, we have to go all the way right now.

And there's that disagreement. You remember this from going back in history. Right? Slavery was like this.

There were some people who were like, abolish, abolish, abolish. And others were like, gosh, I don't think we can do that. We have to finagle. We have to work around the edges.

Every big debate has had that.

What I've learned is that actually the goals are the same. When we are saying, hey, we need to make sure government is more -- is smaller, more limited. That's not the goal of most of the people. On, quote, unquote, our side in Washington.

GLENN: Nope.

STU: They don't share those goals. So they're working for something completely different.

They're not going to what we want, as -- as a typical American conservative.

We're inching towards some of those goals.

But also, when we need to give up on them. They go the opposite direction to keep these guys in office for a couple of years. Fine!

And that's what's really frustrating here.

GLENN: So let me give you some good news. And then I'll -- and I'll spoil it for you.

But some good news. The House has just passed legislation that makes performing transgender surgeries on minors a felony. Now, here's the bad news: It passed 216 to 211.

That means, really, there are 211 Democrats that actually in their heart of hearts think that cutting into minors, cutting the breasts off. At this point, now that we have all the data that we have gathered over, you know, five years of doing this to children. At this point, there's 211 that firmly believe, yeah, no. Damn it. We should cut off the breasts. The healthy breasts off of a healthy minor. We've got to make those -- we've got to make those decisions. And a 12-year-old make that decision. A 15-year-old should make that decision.

Really? No!

It's just politics. And if they do think they believe it, they believe it because they've been party brainwashed. You know, how many of us, on any -- on any and all sides, how many of us actually believe something and have thought it through, and how many of us are just kind of zombie following the crowd?

I contend most people are just zombies following the crowd.

Whether -- that might be a crowd now of, you know what, Charlie Kirk was killed by his wife!

There's all kinds of zombie crowds. And they don't require you to think at all.
They just require you to sign up for the team. And that's -- that's my biggest problem with the Republicans. Is I'm not on a team.

You know, when I left Fox, Roger Ailes said to me, you know what your problem is? And I said, no. But I know you're going to tell me.

What's my problem?

He said, you won't play the game. He said, you know, there's -- there are well-established rules. If you need a pound of flesh, you take a pound of flesh from me.

But then you owe me a pound of flesh. So when I need a pound of flesh, I'm going to come and take it out of you. And then we go out, and we have dinner with each other.

And I was just astounded that that was actually spoken out loud. And I said, see, here's the problem: I don't believe it is a game.

I actually believe in something. And -- and I thought more people believed in something.

Don't you feel like you just want somebody to go in, like Mr. Smith Goes to Washington, and actually believe in something!

And then when they find out, wait a minute. I've been duped like Mr. Smith Goes to Washington.

They stand up and say, this is wrong!

And I'm not playing that game. And I don't want to play that game. And you kind of, again, there's so many hoops you have to jump through, for this to happen.

Then you actually have to believe that there are other people in the Congress and the Senate, that are like, you know what, he's brave enough to say it. I'm going to stand up next to him.

I mean,, oh, I remember when I was young and naive. And I believed those things would happen.

I still believe they can happen.

But only when the American people return to common sense and demand it.

"It’s a Wonderful Life" - The Amazing UNTOLD Story of the Classic Christmas Movie

It’s a Wonderful Life wasn’t always a beloved classic — in fact, it was a complete failure that nearly destroyed the careers of Frank Capra and Jimmy Stewart. Glenn Beck reveals how a forgotten film, resurrected only because its copyright lapsed, became one of the most meaningful stories in American culture. Through George Bailey’s quiet sacrifices, the movie teaches us that the true measure of a life is often invisible, discovered only through the small acts of faithfulness and love we give along the way. This timeless reminder — that ordinary people can change the world without ever seeing the ripples — is why the film still breaks our hearts, heals our spirits, and reassures us that we mattered.

Transcript

Below is a rush transcript that may contain errors

GLENN: Let me tell you a story that you think you already know. It's about a movie that feels like it's been there our whole lives. It's like a tree in the town square and the hymn. You don't remember learning, but somehow you know it by heart. But this particular movie hasn't been around forever, it just seems like it. It was actually born out of failure. It was born out of exhaustion.

And it was born out of people who felt just like its lead character, George Bailey.

It's a Wonderful Life has a fascinating story behind it. And it speaks volumes about us, our hopes, our fears, our desires.

The movie was made by Frank Capra, and it was right after World War II. Frank Capra had just come back. He didn't come home triumphant. He came home a changed man.

He had spent the war making film for the United States government. The war department.

About why the west is worth saving. This film series. They're fantastic. It's called Why We Fight.

And when he returned, his old style of doing things, the old machinery just didn't fit Hollywood anymore. So he started his own studio. He bet absolutely everything on it.

And It's a Wonderful Life was supposed to be the movie, that proved Frank Capra is still Frank Capra. And it nearly ruined him. The movie lost money. Critics really didn't like it. They mocked how schmaltzy it was. Audiences stayed home.

Jimmy Stewart, this was his first movie that he made, when he came back home from the war. And this was his start. And between Frank Capra and Jimmy Stewart. Oh, my gosh, you've got a massive hit, right?

Nobody came. Nobody watched it. Jimmy Stewart, the most beloved man in America gave a really raw, shaken, almost too real performance for people at the time. He wasn't the cheerful hero that is coming out of war as a victory.

This was a man that was cracking under the weight of responsibility. A man who did everything right, but he still felt like he was a failure.

Any of this sound familiar?

It was a story about what happened during the Depression and the crash of '29. Well, America had been living that forever!

They had been living that since '29. They went through the long Depression.

Then they went through the war. The first thing, out of war, they don't want to watch a movie about how depressing life can be. Okay?

So it was a total failure. Film disappears. Goes into a vault. It's a noble misfire.

Good idea. It just didn't land. Maybe wrong time. Eh. Maybe too schmaltzy. Then something weird happened, everybody forgot about it. And so the rights lapsed. There was no grand relaunch. There was no marketing genius, just a legal oversight that let the rights lapse.

Enter Ted Turner.

Ted Turner and Super Station TBS. Remember Super Station TBS when he bought a bunch of stations across the country, and he tied them all together.

And then cable came in, and Super Station TBS became TBS. Turner, while he was looking on super station TBS. They needed some holiday programming. And they needed it cheap. And when I say cheap, what they -- what Ted really meant was tree. We need a bunch of free programming, that we can run all Christmas.

Okay?

No rights. No royalties.

What is out there?

The vaults opened up, and lo and behold, they find It's a Wonderful Life.

Suddenly, it appears in our life, and I don't know about you. I always thought it had been around forever. It did seem like it was a new relaunch.
It was like, hey, did you hear about this new movie?

It was just there and on. We thought everybody knew about it. Nobody knew about it. Our grandparents probably didn't know we knew about it, because it was a massive failure. It's on afternoons, late nights. It's on mornings.

It's everywhere. It's everywhere. Black and white snow flickering on the living rooms. As we are playing on the floor. We as the adults are half listening, half watching. And slowly, slowly, its message found us.

It found us this time, because America had changed.

We weren't fresh from it despair. And we weren't fresh from victory anymore.

We weren't those people. It wasn't so close to us, that we didn't want to look at us!
Yes, we were tired. We were busy. We were stretched thin.

But we were also a group now that measured our lives in promotions. And in square footage. And bank balances.

We were starting to become a little Mr. Potter-like. And we didn't want to be Mr. Potter.

And there on the screen is George Bailey, standing on the bridge, wondering, would the world be better without me? He's not a villain. He's not a loser.

He's actually a really good man.
He's the best of us. And that's why it still works.

Think of all the happy endings and all we have, and everything else. And all of the stories that we tell ourselves.

This movie doesn't tell you, that life will turn out the way you planned.

This one tells you something much, much harder. That the measure of your life is probably going to be invisible to you, while you're living your life.

Because Clarence ain't coming down in his 1800s clothing, and having a hot toddy with you.

So you probably won't know the real measure of your life. And the biggest victories in your life don't come with applause. And the sacrifice, it usually doesn't feel heroic at the moment. It just feels like sacrifice. And crap. Why me. Why me?
Why don't I ever get the adventure that I planned my whole life? Remember, George never left Bedford Falls. He never becomes famous. He just stays. And he shows up. And he keeps his promises. And he holds people together.

What is the real -- what's the real miracle of the film?

Because it's not Clarence. It's not the bells.

It's not him getting his life back. The real miracle is the ledger. That's the miracle. The names, the faces, the small kindness, you all stacked you up, one on top of each other, until you realize, oh, my gosh. All of those little acts, they amount to a life that actually mattered. We're all looking for the big splashy -- he didn't get any of those. He didn't get that.

And that's why he felt like he was a failure. That's why when the town shows up in the end, and they're all giving just a few dollars, it breaks us every single time. Because deep down, we're not watching George Bailey. Deep down, we're checking our own books, our own ledger. Did I? Do I matter to anybody? Would I be missed? Do the things I gave up -- the things I really wanted to do in life, but because something else came up. I had to serve, I had to do this for my kids. Or I had to do this -- the things I gave up, does it mean anything?

This film answers it with a whisper. It doesn't shout it. It whispers.

You'll never fully know the good you've done. I can't give you an answer. You'll never know it. You'll never see the ripples while you're standing in the water.

But they're there. Believe me, they're there.

So this year, when you either just have it running, while you're all in the kitchen. And you're watching time to time. Oh, I love this part. I love this part.

And everybody gets quiet and you just curl on the couch and watch it again, remember, you're not watching a Christmas movie.

What you're watching is a reminder that life doesn't have to be loud to be important.

That staying can be braver than leaving. That loving your family and your neighbors and your town, imperfect as it is, that's not settling.

It's choosing. And whether Ted Turner knew it or not, I can guarantee you, that Jimmy Stewart did. And Frank Capra certainly did.

That every time you see that, why we, year after year, when the snow starts falling in that old piano theme play as we comes back. Not for the nostalgia. But for the reassurance.

Because every once in a while, all of us need somebody just to look us in the eye and say, you're here!

You mattered.

And it is a wonderful life.

How Trump TRICKED the media with his presidential address

President Trump recently addressed the nation about his administration’s many accomplishments over its first year. Glenn Beck reviews the best moments of the speech, as well as some moments he doesn’t believe will age well. Plus…did Trump trick the media into playing his highlight reel by making them think he would declare war with Venezuela?

Transcript

Below is a rush transcript that may contain errors

GLENN: So last night, the President spoke, and, you know, he started out.

It was -- it was -- let me give you the overall first. I've never seen him more disciplined.

I think the speech was like, I don't know. It was over by 20 minutes after. And I think he ran six minutes late. I mean, I've never seen -- he doesn't say hello in less than 20 minutes.

He stayed on script the whole time. He was extraordinarily disciplined. He was forceful with it. And he explained what has been done in the last year. And he started out saying, a year ago, our country was dead. Now we're the hottest country. We're the hottest country in the world right now. Nobody has ever seen anything like it.

He said, you know, when he took -- when he took over, inflation was the worst in 48 years.

Caused prices to be higher than ever. Making life unaffordable for millions of Americans. And he said, over the past 11 months, we brought more positive change to Washington than any administration in American history.

Never been anything like it.

He talked about successfully negotiating $18 trillion of investments into the country.

And he said, but the real problem for most Americans was under Biden, car prices rose 22 percent in many states. He said, 30 percent or more. Gasoline rose 30 to 50 percent.

Hotel rates raised 37 percent. Airfare rose 31 percent. And he said, they're all coming down. They're coming down fast. Faster than anybody expected. Drugs, brought by ocean and sea are now down by 94 percent. He said, we broke the grip of sinister woke radicals in our schools.

I restored American strength, settled eight wars in ten months, destroyed the Iran nuclear threat. And ended a war in Gaza, bringing for the first time in 3,000 years, peace to the Middle East.
Then he talked about, you know, what's coming next!

Now, here are my thoughts on this: You know, everybody was speculating, he's going to say we're going to war. What would give you that impression?

I mean, he doesn't -- that is the very last resort. And we are not out of tricks with Venezuela.

I don't think we're going to war with Venezuela.

I think he's making it look like we're going to war, to freak Venezuela out.

And to get Maduro out.

I don't think we're going into war.

I hope we're not. I could be wrong.

But I just don't think that's his deal.

Everybody is speculating, he will announce we're going to war.

No. He's not.

However, is it possible that they were leaking this?

Because I saw this as the kickoff of the campaign. I saw this as okay. This is the message for 2026 for the Republicans.

And it was so disciplined and -- and so tight. You know, he gets -- when the president calls a speech at night and says, he wants to address the nation be, the networks are asked to carry it.

Sometimes they don't. They don't have to. But if he said, look, I only need 20 minutes, I'm sure that everybody at NBC. I mean, I did. Rolled my eyes. Yeah. It will be 20 minutes.

It will be an hour and 20 minutes. But it was tight and focused in 20 minutes.

I wonder if the war thing wasn't a way to get them to cover this.

If -- if it wasn't a leak from the White House. You know, I think he might. I think he might announce war tonight. Then everybody will cover it. I don't know.

Maybe that's me being too sinal. I don't know. Can you be too cynical at this point?

Here's the thing. He said a couple of things that I didn't think will serve him well. And it's only because -- and I think you feel the same way.

I know I'm sick of it. And I've been reporting on it since the beginning of Obama.

And I hated it when Obama was doing it. And he did it for eight years. Biden did it for four years.

And here's the line: I inherited a mess. I inherited trouble. I'm cleaning up somebody else's mess.

True. It's absolutely true. It wasn't with Biden.

It kind of was with Obama, at the beginning.

But, you know, when you're seven years into it. You haven't cleaned that up yet?

I mean, you've got to get a bigger mop. But it's definitely true under Donald Trump. However, people have heard that now from the last three presidents.

And they're tired of it. It has no meaning anymore. Even though it's true.

And I want to go back to truth here in a second. The other thing that I don't think will serve him well is the economy is doing better than ever.

You're going to love it. It's great. People are not -- that might be true!

In my opinion, it's not. It is doing much, much better.

I mean, you know, you -- you had -- what was it?

Twenty-five percent. Thirty percent inflation added to everything? You've got to go into negative inflation to be able to get those prices down. They're going to be up there. And what's happening is, we still are adding 2 percent inflation. And that's the target. I don't know why we put up with that target, but that's the target.

So you'll have 2 percent price increases every year. Now, we're at 3 percent. We get the numbers out today.

It might go into the twos. Are they out yet?

STU: Yeah. 2.7, the number out today.

GLENN: 2.7 that's great.

STU: Yeah, it's better. It's going the right direction. They say part of that might be because the government shutdown, so we're not sure how long that lasts, but positive movement anyway.

GLENN: Yeah, so that's fantastic! So coming down to 2.7. Remember, we were at 9, and it was compounding year after year after year.

So he is bringing things down. And the price of some things like gasoline and eggs. And some of the stuff you get at the grocery, are way down. They're not back to where they were in 2016. Or 2020.

Because, I mean, he's just trying to stop the inflation.
So what's happening, and this is what I say, will serve him well is, there was this great marketing book out in the '80s called Positioning the Battlefields of Your Mind -- or, Battleground of Your Mind.

And it was a book that led to the Cola Wars. It was the understanding of the Cola Wars and how Pepsi could beat Coca-Cola.

They had to change the perception. And the perception was, that Coca-Cola was it!

And Pepsi had to change it, and that's why they became the choice of a new generation. And for a while, Pepsi was -- it may have even beaten Coke.

But there was this real Cola War back and forth the whole time. They didn't change the flavors. They didn't change anything.

Pepsi was what Pepsi always had been. Coca-Cola was what Coca-Cola had always been.

They needed to change the perception, okay? Because perception, whether it's true or not, perception is reality.

Whatever people perceive, and feel, is their reality.

So it's the reality that you have to deal with.

People don't feel the relief yet. They see the prices coming down. But they're still paying out the same amount of money that they were paying out under Joe Biden.

It's not getting worse. Except, by 2.7 percent overall.

But it's -- it's not getting better to them. You know, certain categories are.

But overall, you're still struggling with your rent and everything else!

And so people's perception is: It -- it's not what I expected. Because what I expected was 2019!

I expected to have jobs and the economy rolling. And the price of housing coming down. And everything else.

And it's not.

So what's not going to serve him well is saying, "Your perception is wrong." He might be right! It doesn't matter! You can't tell people their perception is wrong. You have to change that perception.

And the only way to really change it is to demonstrate it, or through ads, you know, back in the Cola War era, they just changed slogans and do ads and everything else. But people don't buy slogans anymore. They don't buy ads anymore. They don't even trust logos anymore. So that won't work.

You actually have to change people's lives to change their perception. Now, 25 percent last month said that they felt that their personal finances were doing better. That was last month. Or the month before last.

This last month, it's up to 27 percent.

So he's moving that in the right direction. But to win, you've got to be over 40 percent.

Easy over 40 percent have to feel like their personal finances are getting better. 27 percent is not enough. But it is moving in the right direction.

So when the president says he's got to relate to the people who steal -- who have defended him, liked him, and believe in him, he's got to say, I know you're feeling the pinch.

You know, one of the things he said last night. But I don't think it's connected yet to people.

And it's because it's absolutely true. Why do you think that you are spending more every month for your rent?

Why?

You're spending more on rent, because there's too many people chasing too few houses and apartments.

You cannot add ten to 15 million people in four years, while you're not building things. You can't add 10 million people into your country and say, oh, by the way. Go get housing.

Where are they going to get the housing?

The housing, you're going to have a shortage, which will cause the prices to go up.

So until you get rid of those 10 million people. You're not going to lower the price.

And especially if the government is subsidizing them.

Because, I mean, look at the NGOs. If people know, the government will pay. They will keep the price up. What would happen with NGOs. Look what's happening with universities. Why do you think universities are so expensive?

They weren't like that. Until the government said, we will guarantee the loans. Once the government said, we'll guarantee the loans, prices went true the roof because everybody could get a loan!

That's the problem. He's got to connect this, and I think he started last night. He's done it a few times. But somewhere or another, it's really got to connect with the American people.
You cannot solve the housing crisis and not solve the immigration crisis. You have to send people back home, or you're going to have to wait five years, as we build new apartment complexes and new buildings. And we stabilize under these ten million new homes that were needed.

That's not popular. And nobody is going to wait that long. Somehow or another, he's got to make that point. And it's got to connect with people, to give him more time to turn things around, on the housing.

Now, he also was really strong in saying that he was appointing -- wait until you meet the guy to appoint the head of the Fed.

Well, I would like to meet that person too. I would like to know who that is. He said he will do it right after the first of the year. Because our Fed chair is leaving, after the first of the year in February. And he said he's a guy who understands low interest rates. And, you know, low mortgage rates, looser money. That could be really dangerous with -- with inflation, but we'll see.

But that could be a turning point, one way or the other, a new Fed chair will be a new turning point.

And hopefully, Trump and this new Fed chair know what they're doing, and it won't make things worse.

But I don't know how you can with the Fed. I mean, they've already made everything so bad.