RADIOApril 19, 2024

Bitcoin Halving EXPLAINED: Will This One Be DIFFERENT?

The Bitcoin halving is here, but what is this event and will it be different from previous ones? Glenn and Stu explain what a Bitcoin halving is, what usually happens, and why some believe there won’t be a spike in Bitcoin value this time around. But are they right? Or is it still a good time to buy?

Transcript

Below is a rush transcript that may contain errors

GLENN: Hey, today is Bitcoin. What they call the havoc. Right?

STU: Happy havoc day, to those who celebrate. Yes. Ten hours away from now, it looks like.

GLENN: It sounds like something that would maybe happen, in -- what was that?

That film happened in Norway. It was like that summer festival.

It's like the halving, and they're all gathered in some beautiful place.

STU: Yes. What was that movie?

What was that? It was very -- it was one I wouldn't watch.

GLENN: It was creepy.

It could have been called the Halving.

Or, you know, When Magic Goes Bad. David Copperfield stars in the Halving. Now, I have to cut this woman in half. And he can't put her back. Maybe I don't --

STU: That would be a good plot. That's not what the halving is for Bitcoin though.

GLENN: Yeah.

STU: And you've seen the price go up. There's been various reasons for that over the past year.

The ETFs. Meaning a lot of money is flowing into Bitcoin for the first time, really. That is a big catalyst of it.

The other is the halving, which happens, what? Every four years.

You don't know exactly what will happen. As they get closer and closer, they can specify.

And it will be today, at some point. About ten hours from now.

GLENN: And what does it mean exactly?

STU: Basically, when Bitcoin started. You have to have miners with, who are going to mine the Bitcoin to kind of bring it into availability for everybody.

GLENN: And you knew this would involve minors.

STU: No, it's not like Jeffrey Epstein. Think of a coal miner, except digitally.

GLENN: Different kind of miner. Okay. All right. What are they wearing? Are they wearing pants?

STU: That's not important. That's not important. By the way, Bitcoin miners know they're not wearing pants. They're in their underwear in their mother's basement. At least that's how it started. It was people in their underwear in their mom's basement, basically. And they were mining tons and tons of Bitcoin.

Now, remember, Bitcoin, there will only ever be 21 million of them. They are sort of -- think of them being mined. They are slowly mined, this time, I think we've mined, 2140. I don't know. It's a long way. But the basic idea with the halving, is every four years the reward for the miners gets cut in half. So the reason that's important, is the supply shrinks.

So maybe, you go back years and years and years. There's tons and tons of Bitcoin going on. Getting mined every single day.

Now, that number gets cut in half.

It was like each block, which is about every ten minutes.

Each one of those, it was six Bitcoin. Were freed into the world.

Like released into the world.

Now it's like three. It shrinks every four years. 1.75. 1.5. Or 1.25. It's not exact numbers.

GLENN: Until it gets to zero and there's no more Bitcoin left.

STU: And that's at 21 million Bitcoin. So you are now at -- I think it's six to three, roughly, in this particular halving. And the other part about the halving that has been important to note, is every time, there has been one, over the next six months, there has been a massive increase in the prophesy Bitcoin. Now, will this happen this time? No one knows. Past performance is not indicative of future results, we all know the disclaimer.

GLENN: We really do know that disclaimer. You may not know that disclaimer, but we do.
STU: Yes. Very true.

GLENN: The views of Stu are not necessarily those of the host.

STU: This is not financial advice.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. We don't know. We have also had a very large rise over the past year. So some people theorized, it's already built in.

Right?

This time, the rise we've already had, is basically part of what the halving would bring. However, when you look at the charts over the past three or four or five halvings. We've had massive increases. All those times, where all of a sudden, everyone around you, was talking about Bitcoin. Almost all those periods happened between six months.

Three to nine months after a halving.

GLENN: After. Not before.

STU: Well, you've seen some rises before. Generally, speaking, the real pop has happened after.

GLENN: This has been a real pop. This brought us back to where it was.

STU: There's a reason to believe, there's more here. Again, the last one was in 2020. Do you remember the 2021 phenomenon?

Then you had a drop back down. We are now down back to where we were, 2021.

GLENN: Making a case that somebody should buy, just a fraction of Bitcoin.

STU: Okay.

GLENN: I mean, you know, when it first started, and everybody was on board. Everybody was buying Bitcoin.

Because it was like, I have three Bitcoin. You know.

STU: Yep.

GLENN: And now, most people cannot afford to buy -- no.

STU: Of course not. Let me put it this way.

Right now, you would say, Bitcoin, $60,000. Basically, it's only for a millionaire.

Someone who wants tons of money, who will throw into a Bitcoin.

You might say only millionaires can afford that.

You might say something like that. Think of it this way, there are 24.5 million millionaires just in the United States.

GLENN: 24.5 million millionaires.

STU: Yes. Right. Right now, there will never be enough Bitcoin for every millionaire in the United States to own one. That doesn't include millionaires around the world. There are already too many millionaires for just millionaires to get one of these things.

GLENN: How much of it do you think is lost? Permanently, forever, lost.

STU: Permanently. Like, for example, we know the Satoshi's account. Which, the guy who invented Bitcoin. We don't know who it is. Group of people. Or if he's dead. I think they're dead. That's my opinion. He has an account with 1 million of it, in it, that's never moved.

So we basically know, unless this guy reveals himself somehow in the future. Which is not likely, that a million of them are lost. We also know, early on, people were mining these things and getting thousands and tens of thousands of them. And just losing -- turning their computer off. And not thinking they were worth anything.

The estimates are that probably something like a third of them are lost forever. So instead of 21 million, maybe it's 14 million. Maybe it's 15 million.

Somewhere in that vicinity. Now that they're valuable, people are not losing them, of course. At least as often. It's still happening every day.

People screw it up. They lose it.

They send it to the wrong account. That stuff still happens. But you're probably talking about, let's say 15 million, that actually will exist.

You have 24.5 millionaires in the United States. In the world, you have about 60 million millionaires. So if you split up all the Bitcoin in the world, just among millionaires, they can only get a quarter of one each.

Now, if you can put some in there. The idea that these things will go down in value.

Over the very long-term. To me, is unlikely.

And part of that is, at the beginning of this, nobody knew. Right?

Like when I first invested in Bitcoin. And I don't have a lot of money in Bitcoin. But when I first started in Bitcoin. My thought was, I'm going to throw some money in this, let's see what happens.

I have absolutely no idea.

My thought was, there's a good chance. I said this to you, at the time. There's a good chance it goes to zero. It was a total gamble. I had no idea.

I liked the concept of money that can't be inflated and printed. Right?

I like that concept. That's why I was interested in it.

But, I mean, how many multi-trillion dollar industries can you remember going to zero?

I mean, is there any example of this?

GLENN: White star line. This has I don't think they were worth trillions. Right?

Enron was a big company, right?

Don't remember it being worth trillions. Bitcoin's market cap is over a trillion dollars.

GLENN: No. I can't see it going to zero. Unless all the central banks in the world say, not --

STU: It's so resistant to that right now. Though.

GLENN: I know.

STU: We're seeing countries open up. And start accepting it. You know, the United States of America, has now accepted Bitcoin ETFs. That's a huge embrace of this technology.

And look, I don't know. I can't tell you, it won't go down in the future. I would be surprised if it never goes down below these levels again. It probably will.

So you might buy today. And at some point, be down.

A lot of people bought in 2021. And thought, oh, my gosh, I've lost all my money.

Except, now pretty much every person who has ever bought Bitcoin in its history, if they held on to it, is either about even or up.

GLENN: Everybody. Even the people who bought at the very peak.

STU: Everybody. Yeah, unless you bought like a couple of months ago, when it hit 69-70 for a couple of days. There's a few people.

But generally speaking, almost no one who has ever purchased this and kept it, has lost money.

And that's that's quite a statement. Again, what other investments can you point to, that has that type of record?

There's almost none. So I don't know. You don't know what the future holds, but man, this is a technology that has proved itself incredibly resilient.

GLENN: I get really pissed at you, every time we talk about this. Every time.

STU: You get pissed at me.

Why are you pissed at me?

GLENN: Yes, I do. I blame you for bad decisions. Blame you.

STU: Why?

GLENN: I was with Marc Andreessen.

STU: Yes.

GLENN: It might have even been a fraction of a cent.

STU: It was before -- well before I bought it. That's for sure.

Because I remember the conversation.

GLENN: Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.

And he's going to start some new thing with this new currency.

STU: Yeah. I remember you telling me this, at the time. I fortunately, did not listen.

GLENN: Yeah. Neither did I. Neither did I.

And we could have put hundred dollars in it, at this point.

STU: Oh, my gosh.

$100. Do you know how much that would be worth?

GLENN: It was a fraction of a cent. Wasn't it?

STU: I don't remember if it was that low, but it was really early.

GLENN: It was right as he started the digital wallet.

Coinbase. It was right as he started it.

STU: Gosh. This makes me physically ill.

GLENN: I think he actually told me that before he started it.

Or he may have --

STU: In the middle of making money or whatever.

GLENN: Yeah. He said, do you know anything about Bitcoin. You should invest.

Just take $5,000. And just throw it in this. And I'm like, uh-huh.

And I -- at the time, $5,000 was -- you know.

STU: You would probably be a billionaire.

GLENN: I would be.

STU: I can't imagine how many you would have -- I love this story.

GLENN: Well, look it up. Look it up.

Look up when they opened Coinbase.

And what the price of Bitcoin was. $5,000.

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Ten-second station ID.
(music)

GLENN: So go ahead.

STU: What?

GLENN: Why he didn't you invest in it? You're always -- you're that kind of guy. You know, I just threw some money in it. Why didn't you --

STU: I mean, I think I did. I just didn't do it as early as that.

Again, I wish I had invested more. Then I wouldn't have to be sitting here with you every day. It would be a dream.

GLENN: If I had a time machine, that's the only thing I would change. And for that reason. I would go back in time.

STU: You would make me -- you actually wouldn't mind making me a billionaire, just so I wouldn't have to be here every day?

GLENN: Yeah. Yeah. That's the kind of guy I am.

STU: How about this, I'll it do for 10 mil right now. Get some financing.

So it depends. It's hard to know exactly when you talk to him. The Coinbase started in 2012. Coinbase is a little later, when you're talking a fraction of a cent, so it was about ten bucks in 2020 -- when it actually started selling Bitcoin. When Coinbase began that process, it was about ten bucks.

If you spent $5,000 then, you would have had about 500 Bitcoin, which would be worth $32.5 million. Which would be incredibly nice. However, my remembrance of this story was, it was before -- before that. When it was sort of being dreamt up.

So it could have been.

GLENN: It was one of the first times I've ever heard of Bitcoin. And I think I came back to you. And I said, what is Bitcoin?

And you were like, well, people buy pizzas with it.

STU: This is ridiculous history.

GLENN: That's exactly what he said.
STU: I don't think I knew much of anything. I had heard of it. But I didn't know anything about it at that time -- I definitely was not discouraging you in investing $5,000. That's exactly how you remember it.

GLENN: That's exactly how I remember it, Your Honor.

STU: And one fascinating thing I think that really hasn't fully taken -- taken root yet when it comes to the Bitcoin phenomenon.

GLENN: By the way, hang on just a second. I just have to say something. I said at the time. I said that, on the air too.

STU: Oh, really?

We should go back and find it.

We can probably find it.

GLENN: Marc Andreessen. He's at Bitcoin.

Blah, blah, blah. But Warren Buffett. He says, if you don't understand it, you shouldn't invest in it.

STU: Where did you find that?

GLENN: I wonder if anybody. If anybody did it.

What our earliest time was, when we said. Hey, maybe you should throw some money into it.

I don't know if I will do it. If anybody in the audience. Of course, there was somebody that was in the audience.

They're not now.

STU: Showing, they're billionaires.

GLENN: On a yacht someplace.

STU: I think that's one of the things that's most interesting in a societal sense.

That we had a lot of people. Because the early people into Bitcoin. Not like the people necessarily today.

But the early people into Bitcoin. Were people who generally speaking, were ideologically let's say Libertarian.

Or somewhat close to that.

GLENN: Yes. Correct.

STU: And there are now massive amounts of people, who became insanely wealthy over this process. And continue probably to get even wealthier.

And those people who would have probably been marginalized in society, at some level.

Maybe they would of been successful. But would never have that sort of power.

GLENN: No. They're the losers. Loaners. And creeps.

STU: And we've seen.

I mean, Libertarians, will describe themselves this way.

So we've seen now, that many of these people have made an impact. Right?

We've seen a lot of them. Marc Andreessen. Not necessarily, an ideological Libertarian. A lot of these people have risen.

Two of the richest people in the world. Are the Winklevoss twins. The people who had Facebook stolen from them.

GLENN: I think they're fictional characters.

STU: They may be. They were in a movie once. So I don't know.

GLENN: Sure. Anybody can play them. But I think anybody with Winklevoss as their name. And they're twins. I think it's too magical to be real.

STU: It's hard to believe.

GLENN: It is. It is.

Oh, let's call on the Winklevoss twins.

STU: For everything --

GLENN: Show up. Say their names three times.

Hi, we're here to grant any wish, with our magical Bitcoin.

STU: Right. Consider that they basically had Facebook -- in my opinion, Facebook stolen from them. They wound up getting thrown out.

Got some money for it. Were not insanely wealthy.

Wound up not with one, but two giant revolutions of the world.

They were at the founding of almost -- they invested a fortune in Bitcoin, right after that.

And now were multi-billionaires because of it. It's a weird people that wouldn't have normally been at the top of our society. Are now there. And hopefully, they've kept some of these small government routes, through that process.

And maybe they can Friday the country, in a way --

GLENN: No. No. Because when you get that wealthy. What you do, you know, I can get somebody on the phone.

I can make this happen. I don't want a stop sign here.

And I think we should also kill the poor. I will get both of those done. I will call my council member. And, you know, my master at the WEF.

You know what you know I mean?

You start protecting it, and then that all goes to hell.

STU: Maybe. Who knows?

GLENN: We should do what Star Trek did, and abolish all money. Learn how to live in harmony.

STU: That worked out well for them. They were poor in episode.

What are you talking about?

GLENN: How did they pay for those starships? How ridiculous was that?

EXCLUSIVE: Chip Roy Explains His FIERY Rejection of Spending Bill

According to the media, there’s a big fight going on between Republicans over the House’s new slimmed-down continuing resolution spending bill. Some, including President-elect Donald Trump, wanted the bill to pass. But others, like Texas Representative Chip Roy, argued that it still wasn’t ready. However, is the Republican “unity coalition” really crumbling, like the media claims? Rep. Chip Roy joins Glenn to explain what’s really going on. He argues that he IS trying to give Trump and DOGE a 100-day “runway” to fix the country. But he makes the case that, by increasing the debt ceiling by $5 trillion without agreeing on other cuts, this bill gives bad actors the ability to be an “obstacle” to Trump’s agenda further down the line. Plus, he reveals to Glenn that he believes some of these bad actors LEAKED false information about his stance to Mar-a-Lago.

Transcript

Below is a rush transcript that may contain errors

GLENN:

I think we have a great opportunity today. To show you how to have a -- tough conversation, with friends, friends. Where you deeply disagree on something.

But you know that their intent is good. They know my intent is good. Or our intent is good.

And we actually have the same end goal, but we disagree on the path. And we're going to walk away friends.

Chip Roy is joining us today. And, Chip, I love you. And I always will. And I agree with your, we've got to cut spending. We have to. But Liz Wheeler is with me. And we've been talking about it all morning. It's the -- the -- the -- the system of DOGE and Trump, the call-out to the world, in saying, you've got to surrender the Capitol. You know, the bad guys are in and about to take all the money.

Surround, and tell them, come out with your hands up. And that happened. And we scored a massive win, in an entirely new way.

Ask then you stood on principle, one we both agree with.

And it failed!

And so here's -- here's what Liz and I were talking about. Here's what we want to say to you.

And then get your response.

LIZ: Hi, Congressman Roy, this is the way I see it. I want your take on it. I love you. I think you're one of the best members of Congress. I disagree with you on the process that's happening. And I think that is the difference. The process. We elected Donald Trump to be a disruptor. Because Republican members of Congress for decades have been telling they're fiscal conservatives. They want to decrease the debt SEAL. It hasn't happened.

It hasn't -- it hasn't been done. And so Donald Trump comes in with Elon Musk, and uses this DOGE process to first identify these pieces of garbage in the first 1500-page bill. And take those things to the people. We took them to members of Congress. Congress said, okay. We'll listen to you.

So that new process was very effective.

And my question to you is: Once that process was proved to be effective. Which I think is exciting and wonderful.

How do we bridge this divide, with you, to say, okay.

Let's put some faith in this new process. And trust Elon Musk and Donald Trump and the Dow Jones process, to eventually address the debt ceiling, but get this done right now?

GLENN: And not blind trust. Chip.

CHIP: So appreciate you guys. Appreciate being on the show. Particular order. I have to go through a couple of things.

GLENN: Yep.

CHIP: Number one, it's important to remember that my job and my duty is to the Constitution, to God, and the people I represent. I told them, when I came to Washington, I would not -- I would not let the credit card and the debt ceiling and the borrowing of the United States without the spending restraints necessary to offset it.

GLENN: Okay.

CHIP: Right now, all we have are promises and ideas and notions. What I know, that neither of you respectfully no, and that none of your listeners respectfully no are the people that are in the room, that I was in with yesterday. And the day before, who are recalcitrant.

And do not want to do the spending cuts that we need to do.

That I believe the president and the DOGE guys. And everybody want to do.

My job, is to force that through the meat grinder. To demand that we do our damn job. Okay?

GLENN: Okay. So hang on. Okay. So wait. Wait. You're right. You're right. You're right. Go ahead.

CHIP: Number thee, when we were going through the bill, I'm glad the bill dropped from 1,550 pages to 116 pages. Three-quarters of Twitter or X or whatever you want to call it, have been out there spreading false facts that we supported a bad bill and didn't like the better bill.

That's not true. But let's be Lear. The 1400 pages that were cut out. It's a panacea.

There were some good stuff in there. There were some bad stuff in there. There was a lot of disinformation.

There wasn't a $70,000 pay raise. There was a 3,000-dollar pay raise.

I didn't support any pay raise. I didn't support a lot of the stuff in there.

But there's a lot of misinformation. And here's the thing: The 116 pages that were left, and I opposed violently the first bill. I was leading the charge on fighting and killing the first bill.

GLENN: And I love you.

LIZ: The second bill for 116 pages. Turned off -- turned off the pay go requirement. That we slash 1.7 trillion automatically.

And added a 5 trillion that are increase.

My view was, I could not support that, without a clear understanding of what cuts we would get, in mandatory spending next year. And undo any of the Inflation Reduction Act.

The undoing of the student loans. The undoing of the crap with the food stamps.

And everything else. I yield back.

GLENN: Okay. I yield back.

Chip, you're not in a hostile room. We love you. And we agree with your end goals. It's our end goal too. We didn't make that promise that you made to the people that voted for you. So we have more wiggle room here.

But you say -- I think our big difference is, you say, I know the guys in the room.

You're right. You do. And we -- we ceded that earlier today on the show.

You are -- one of us is wrong on trust.

I don't trust any of the weasels in Washington.

But I think Donald Trump and Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy have earned enough trust, to get a grace period, here for the first -- maybe the first year.

Or at least six months.

To turn the economy around, and also reduce the size of the government.

And totally flip this thing.

And I know, as somebody who is -- you know, run a company, mainly into a ground. But run a company, and have to switch it, in the middle, and totally reshuffle. That -- that actually costs money, while you're doing it, to bridge the gap.

Because you have to fill up holes while you're filling in the gap.

You don't trust the people in the room. Neither do we.

But we do trust the system that worked on Wednesday with DOGE and Donald Trump.

Where do we disagree?

Can you give them --

CHIP: We don't disagree. And yesterday morning, I was making that precise argument in a room full of conservatives and then a follow-up room with people who will call it, less conservatives.

GLENN: Republican. Yes.

CHIP: And so we were making this argument. And then someone infamously. Something leaked out of the room, somehow out to Mar-a-Lago. That I was being resistant. Because I was negotiating trying to get the agreement to achieve the objective that you just said. I was trying to get, okay. In fact, yesterday morning, I made the argument to a group of conservatives. We need to give the president runway. We need to give him his first 100 days. We need to appreciate JD, and Vivek, and all the people -- and everybody involved. For the president to achieve the objective.

But to get there. We have to make sure that the guys in the room, that are an obstacle to that, don't have the ability to block it.

Because information flow matters. And when those guys tell the president, they can't achieve X.

Then the president will not achieve X. Our job was to force and demand, guys, we need actual understanding of what the cuts will be.

And because otherwise, we're asking us to accept a 5 trillion-dollar limit in our credit card increase. In exchange for nothing!

Literally, in exchange for nothing, but -- but hope.

So our job was to force that change.

Unfortunately, while I was trying to make the argument that we needed something in order to get the votes, someone leaked that down to Mar-a-Lago, and the president reacted.

But now I have to now manage that.

GLENN: Right. I know. I know.

CHIP: They're trying to enforce change in town.

GLENN: So hang on.

We have to leave this. Because I'm going to run against the clock.

I could talk to you all day about this. You were in a meeting this morning about J.D. Vance. Can you tell us anything about that meeting?

CHIP: That meeting happened, because despite what happened yesterday, I'm trying to get this done. Last night, talking to JD, we worked to get this meeting done. We had some good progress this morning.

But there still remains people concerned about spending. That we can work out, what agreement we can reach. On what spending cuts. We can actually get next year, in exchange for giving the vote on a debt ceiling increase.

So it remains fluid. Progress was made. But we have to keep working on it.

And I left that meeting to talk to you. Soil get an update in a minute.

GLENN: Thank you for that, by the way.

I hear there is a new bill that may be coming today.

Is that the one you're talking about?

Or is this another bill that could be another nightmare?

CHIP: Despite other people leaking crap, I refused. I can't say, because it's not been decided by the speaker.

And it's not right to talk about things they're talking about in private meetings.

GLENN: Yeah, but it's -- it's this speaker. I mean, is he really the speaker anymore, Chip, really?

CHIP: We need to hear what bill we need to get forward. And I can't talk about the private meetings. But, look, I'm going to keep fighting for what I promised people that I represent.

I'm going to fight to cut spending. I am going to represent article one.

I'm going to support the president's agenda, but we've got to do that together.

GLENN: Okay.

Chip, thank you.

I think we can -- I think we agree, but I await to see what that means to you. Because we may just have to agree to disagree on this.

But I love you. And I still want you to replace Cornyn.

CHIP: The short version is, for inflation's sake, we cannot increase the debt ceiling $5 trillion without knowing what we're getting for it.

And I don't think anybody should disagree with that.

GLENN: But you don't disagree that Elon Musk and Trump and Vivek are serious about gutting the system.

CHIP: I believe that is their objective. I believe there are obstacles to that objective. And I need to know the sincerity of how we deal with those obstacles, both structural, and human. And we have to figure that out. And that's my job.