It's time to care again about gold and silver

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It's been a while since I've covered the precious metals in an article. They've been range-bound for much of the past year, with few notable sector developments to report.

But I feel compelled to write about them today for two reasons:

  1. The probability of an upwards re-pricing of the precious metals is rising, and
  2. Both gold & silver are quite over-sold right now, technically-speaking.

With technical and fundamental indicators flashing green simultaneously like this, now is an advantageous time to consider increasing your PM exposure (I did so myself yesterday).

The Human Factor

Before I go into further detail on the current conditions of the PM market, here's a recent personal experience that underscores how few people have any real familiarity with gold & silver as an asset class, let alone own any (beyond, perhaps, a bit of jewelry).

A good friend moved and needed help transporting some bullion from his old town to his new one. Most of it was silver, several thousand ounces worth.

That much silver is pretty friggin' heavy.

So we huffed and strained, hauling that load out of one bank vault, into his car, and from there into the vault at his new bank. While we did our best to be as discrete as possible, our sweaty, grunting 2-man production was hard for the bank staff to ignore.

Managers at both banks figured out what was going on, as it was pretty obvious. And both separately asked us out of genuine curiosity, "Is that real silver?".

My friend briefly handed over a 100-oz bar so they could see for themselves, sparking conversations about the merits of owning physical bullion.

It turns out that neither manager had ever held a bar of silver before. This was pretty shocking to me. Even though they know that the safe deposit boxes in their own vaults very likely store some bullion, neither own it personally, nor even come into contact with it. It's just not a part of their world.

Anyways, later on I mentioned this story to another buddy who shared my surprise. "Man, if the bankers aren't familiar with silver and gold, then who the heck is?", he asked. A very good question, I agreed.

But then he jolted me by asking: "So, one of those 100oz bars -- what's it worth, anyways? $150?"

This is an otherwise intelligent, math-competent person. But like most folks, as well as those bank managers, he doesn't own any precious metals and so his knowledge of them is pretty limited. Limited enough to underestimate the price of silver by over 90%.

This reminded me of Mark Dice's videos, which show just how woefully ignorant the average person is when it comes to the value of bullion. In this one, street passersby decline a free gold coin in favor of a Snicker's bar:

Simply put: gold and silver, in the West at least, are underappreciated assets. As Grant Williams famously put it in his excellent synopsis, when it comes to public and institutional sentiment of the precious metals, "Nobody cares."

Which is a big factor why the prices of PMs have languished for the past seven years. And why the flow of bullion has been uni-directional from West to East over that period.

Time To Care

But there are gathering signs that it's now time to start caring again.

Looking at the just techinical side for a moment, both gold and silver have been in a prolonged downtrend for the past two months. They're now at extreme undersold levels.

Both RSI and MACD indicators are signalling that the recent declines have likely been played out at this point:

Gold price chart

Silver price chart

And both metals have now broken below their Bollinger bands (a sign of extreme oversold conditions). Here's gold:

Gold Bollinger Band chart

While a break below the Bollinger bands could indicate that something fundamental has suddenly changed in the PM market to merit a materially lower repricing, there just don't appear to be any credible candidates for that argument. Yes, the dollar has risen over this period; but there are solid reasons that the USD and gold/silver need not always trade inversely to one another. And as we'll get to in a moment, conditions are actually becoming more PM-favorable.

Technically-speaking, it seems much more likely that the current downtrend is long-in-the-tooth and that, as prices dip down to 18-month lows, a recovery is soon due. In fact, we may be seeing the start of such today, the first material up day for the PMs in a while.

Fundamentally-speaking, world events are providing more and more reasons to own gold and silver -- from stratospheric asset bubbles threatening to burst, to a long-overdue return of market volatility, accelerating de-dollarization, slowing global economic growth, increasing credit market risk in both Asia and Europe -- the list goes on and on.

The full set of PM-positive drivers are covered in our recent excellent interview with Ronald Stoerferle summarizing the insights of his exhaustive 230-page annual report titled In Gold We Trust. If you haven't listened to it yet, carve out 49-minutes to do so soon:

To the many reasons Stoerfele gives in support of his conclusion that gold is "dirt cheap" right now, we can add the multiplying macro data points predicting market turmoil and economic recession later this year, as well as the building uncertainty of further rate hikes by the Federal Reserve -- all potential developments that should lead to higher PM prices.

Whether you're amassing bullion for the long term (which we've long recommended) or speculating in the paper markets for the short term (something we don't encourage for the average investor), you want to buy low and sell high. With precious metals trading near 18-month lows and close to the "all-in" production cost for many miners, prices are unlikely to get much lower than this.

Taking Action

So while prices remain at current lows, we recommend considering the following:

  • Creating your core physical precious metals position if you have none. Many PeakProsperity.com readers already have their core positions in place, should an abrupt crisis occur that suddently sends demand for 'safe haven' assets spiking. But if you haven't built yours yet, don't panic. But also don't delay too long in taking action. A good first step is reading our free guide Buying and Storing Gold & Silver, which details the various forms you can purchase bullion in.
  • Setting up an ongoing purchase program. The easiest and most affordable way to build exposure on top of your core position to set up an automatic purchase program that buys a consistent amount of bullion each month at a volume that fits within your budget. The MetalStream service offered by the Hard Asset Alliance is a good example of such a program, through which you can set up automatic purchases of as little as $100 per month.
  • Nibbling into the miners. The stock prices of precious metal mining companies are much more sensitive to the spot price of gold and silver than the actual metals themselves. They can yield fantastic returns during bull markets, as well as widow-making losses in bear ones. And widow-makers they have been for the past seven years. But, for the above-mentioned reasons, that long winter may be thawing. For investors with the constitution and resources to speculate, it's an opportune time to consider adding or increasing exposure to the miners. That said, when doing so, we *strongly* urge to you work with a profession financial advisor with longtime experience with this asset class *as well as* demonstrated expertise with using hedges to protect these high-risk positions to the downside. If you're having difficulty finding an advisor who meets these conditions, consider scheduling a consultation with the firm we endorse (it's completely free).

Remember, right now, nobody still cares about the precious metals. Which is why it's estimated that only 1-3% of US households own any (jewelry aside).

So even if you only hold a few ounces, that's still more than 97-99% of everyone else -- which may make a tremendous difference to your prospects when the world starts caring again.

DOGE's top 5 BIGGEST cuts

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President Trump has only been in office for a month, and already, he seems to have accomplished more than most presidents do in their entire careers.

Nothing defines Trump's first month more than the newly established Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE. Equally controversial as it is popular, the department, headed by tech billionaire Elon Musk, has made it its mission to root out wasteful government spending. DOGE has already combed through a handful of agencies and eliminated billions of dollars of waste, and it doesn't show any signs of slowing down anytime soon.

DOGE is part of Trump's initiative to curb runaway government spending and to start to chip away at the Fed's crushing debt. At the time this article was written, U.S. debt sat at over $36 trillion, with an estimated $1.9 trillion a year federal budget deficit. According to the U.S. debt clock, Musk and the DOGE crew have already saved more than $136 billion, and that number only keeps growing.

To help track DOGE's progress, we've assembled a list of their top five biggest cuts:

1. USAID

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The United States Agency for International Development, or USAID, has been hit with the some of largest cuts out of any government agency and will potentially even be shut down. This comes after Musk and his team revealed theabsurd things USAID was funding, including a transgender opera in Colombia. The total cut came out to approximately $6.5 billion.

2. Department of Education

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The Department of Education is another agency that faces extinction, much like USAID. The American school system has been found seriously lacking, with many students struggling to meet expectations despite the torrent of cash spent on education. Trump's new Secretary of Education pick, Linda McMahon, has sworn to turn the agency around and even oversee the closure of the department. DOGE has reportedly cut almost $1 billion in waste within the agency.

3. Institute of Educational Sciences

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The IES, or Institute of Educational Sciences, is tasked with tracking the academic progress of America's students and helping improve outcomes. The changes made by DOGE will not affect NAEP, also known as "The Nation's Report Card," and the College Scorecard, which tracks the spending, costs, and outcomes of universities. The agency was all but gutted by Musk's deep cuts, totaling $900 million.

4. Social Security Administration

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For years, we've speculated that the Social Security Administration was a colossal waste of resources, but after Elon Musk posted a screenshot from the SSA database showing that there was a significant number of people over the age of 100 that were still consideredalive by the agency, it seems our suspicions are proved true. It's no small wonder Musk was able to trim over $230 million from the SSA.

5. General Services Administration

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The GSA is the latest agency to be hit by the DOGE crew. The administration, which manages federal property and contracts, has started a massive "reduction in force" push, thinning the numbers of employees by a large margin. As of yet, upwards of $300 million have been cut by the once-bloated agency.

What happened to Europe?

Once upon a time, America and Europe fought side-by-side to overthrow authoritarian regimes and resist communist dictators. Now European leaders are adopting the policies Europeans once fought against—and calling AMERICA out for "abandoning liberal democracy." But as Europeans get arrested for their speech, their elections rigged, and their religion squashed, Glenn felt compelled to notify their leaders of the truth: America didn't abandon democracy, Europe abandoned its people.

With this in mind, over the weekend Glenn authored an open letter to the leaders of Europe, calling them to return to the core values of Western democracy that we fought so hard for and to listen to the voices of their citizens who cry out for change. Glenn encouraged his audience to read his letter and spread the word:

Glenn took to X to get as many eyes on his letter as possible. He also filmed a short video in his home stressing the importance of Europe's awakening. America cannot afford to prop up NATO anymore and Europe needs to be ready to hold its weight. Big changes are coming and for the sake of the Western values we have fought so long to preserve, we want Europe by our side, ready to face the future. We must change our ways before we tear ourselves apart.

Trump's education secretary has BIG plans for the DoE

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Our education system is broken, and the Department of Education is a massive failure. But that all ends now.

It's no secret that America's school system is seriously lacking in many ways. President Trump pointed out that despite our massive spending per pupil, we are behind most of the developed world in most metrics. Our scores continue to plummet while our student debt and spending skyrocket—it's utterly unacceptable performance and America's students deserve better.

That's where Linda McMahon, Trump's pick for Secretary of Education comes in.

The former WWE CEO and leader of the U.S. Small Business Administration during Trump's first term, McMahon laid out her harsh criticisms of the DoE during a confirmation hearing on the 13th and revealed her promising plans to turn things around. McMahon described the public education system as "in decline" and promised that under her authority, the DoE would be reoriented towards student success.

Here are the top three changes to the Department of Education:

1. Dismantling the Department of Education

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From the beginning Trump's orders for McMahon were clear: oversee the end of the Department of Education.

During her Thursday hearing, McMahon clarified what dismantling the DoE would entail. As Democrats have repeatedly pointed out, Trump does not have the authority to destroy the DoE without Congressional consent, as an act of Congress created it. That is why Trump and McMahon's plan is to start by shutting down programs that can be stopped by executive action, then approach Congress with a plan to dismantle the Department for good. The executive orders have already begun to take effect, and once McMahon is confirmed she will author a plan for Congress to close the Department.

McMahon also promised that the end of the Department of Education does not mean an end to all the programs currently undertaken by the doomed department. Programs that are deemed beneficial will be transferred (along with their funding) to departments that are more suited to the task. The example given by McMahon was IDEA (Individuals with Disabilities Education Act) funding, which instead of being cut would be transferred to the Department of Health and Human Services.

2. School Choice

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In a huge win for parents across the country, McMahon pledged her support for School Choice. School Choice is the idea of allowing parents to enroll their student in any school of their choice, including religious schools and private schools. It would also mean that part or all of the funding that would have gone to a relocated child would follow them and continue to pay for their education.

This gives parents the ability to remove their children from failing schools and seek a better education for them elsewhere. A growing body of evidence suggests that the way we run our schools isn't working, and it is time to try something new. School Choice opens up education to the free market and will allow for competition.

Our children deserve better than what we can currently offer them.

3. COVID and DEI

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Trump's government-wide crackdown on DEI will ironically serve to increase inclusion in many American schools.

McMahon said as much during her Senate hearing: “It was put in place ostensibly for more diversity, for equity and inclusion. And I think what we’re seeing is, it is having an opposite effect. We are getting back to more segregating of our schools instead of having more inclusion in our schools.” She also spoke in support of Title IX, and the push to remove biological males from women's and girl's sports. In the same vein, McMahon pledged to push back against the rise of antisemitism on college campuses, which many Universities have failed to adequately address.

On Friday, February 14th, President Trump signed an executive order barring any school or university with COVID-19 vaccine mandates from receiving federal money. This only applies to the COVID-19 vaccine, and other vaccine mandates are still standing.

POLL: What DARK government secrets will Trump uncover?

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Will the dark secrets of the Deep State finally see the light of day? Or will they slip back into darkness, as they have many times before?

The Trump administration is gearing up to fulfill one of Trump's most anticipated campaign promises: to make the contents of the JFK files, along with other Deep State secrets, available to the public. Kash Patel, who has promised to publicize the highly anticipated files, is expected to be confirmed next week as Trump's director of the FBI. Moreover, the House Oversight Committee created a new task force headed by Rep. Anna Paulina Luna called "Task Force on Declassification of Federal Secrets," which is tasked with investigating and declassifying information on the JFK, RFK, and MLK assassinations, UFOs, the Epstein list, COVID's origins, and 9/11. This all comes after the FBI found 2,400 "new" records relating to the assassination of President Kennedy following Trump's executive order to release the files.

Glenn discussed this topic with the cast of the Patrick Bet David podcast. Glenn expressed his confidence in Trump's radical transparency—on the condition that Kash Patel is confirmed. The cast was not as optimistic, expressing some doubt about whether Trump will actually unveil all that he has promised. But what do you think? What files are likely to see the light of day? And what files will continue to linger in the dark? Let us know in the poll below

Do you think the JFK, RFK, and MLK files will be unveiled?

Do you think the 9/11 files will be unveiled?

Do you think the COVID files will be unveiled?

Do you think the UFO files will be unveiled?

Do you think the Epstein list will be unveiled?