The latest GOP poll numbers revealed

November 03, 2015

Editor

Since the last GOP debate, the poll numbers have come out showing some changes to the rankings of the candidates.

According to The Wall Street Journal national poll, Ben Carson led at 29 percent ahead of Trump at 23 percent. Marco Rubio was at 11 percent, Ted Cruz at ten, Jeb Bush at eight, followed by Carly Fiorina, John Kasich, Mike Huckabee and Chris Christie at three, and Rand Paul at two.

At the back of the pack were Jim Gilmore, Rick Santorum, Bobby Jindal, Lindsey Graham and George Pataki at zero percent.

Listen to Glenn's commentary or read the transcript below.

Below is a rush transcript of this segment, it might contain errors.

GLENN: This poll is the latest in the presidential campaign. And yesterday, in case you don't know, we asked for your support. We wrote a letter to the RNC. We talked to all the campaigns. I think -- by this time we've talked to all of them. And we've had the support of many of the campaigns. And we appreciate that. We're trying to get the last and final debate on TheBlaze. It will be the first ever all digital. We'll run it across all of the multi platforms that we have. Television, online. We'll make it free. It will go on radio, Blaze Radio as well. You know, it's a footprint of about 50 million people.

STU: And it will feature a swimsuit competition, one segment.

JEFFY: Nice.

GLENN: Yes, that's true. If that's what helps, yes.

STU: The Chris Christie part is going to be particularly interesting.

PAT: It will be.

GLENN: It will be. He's not going topless.

STU: Well, no. We would be breaking all sorts of laws.

JEFFY: Well, we should say he won't start that way.

STU: Nice.

PAT: Skin to win, though. People will start yelling that. Skin to win.

GLENN: Yeah. Every time they get a question that I don't like, I tell them to take off another piece of clothing.

STU: There would be a lot of nudity. A lot of nudity.

PAT: Oh, man.

GLENN: So here's the latest on the poll numbers.

STU: Yes, NBC, Wall Street Journal poll, it's the national poll. And it is Carson, 29 percent. Trump, 23.

PAT: So that's the second one in a row, right?

STU: Yeah, this is -- I think two of the last three national polls that I've seen, at least, have had Carson ahead of Trump. And you have Rubio at 11 percent. Cruz at ten. Jeb Bush at eight. Carly Fiorina and John Kasich -- and, also, excuse me Mike Huckabee and Christie all at three. You have four people at three -- it's Kasich, Fiorina, Huckabee, Christie. Rand Paul at two.

PAT: Yep.

STU: And then Jim Gilcrestmorelandson, Rick Santorum, Bobby Jindal, Lindsey Graham, George Pataki at zero percent.

PAT: That's a real shame for Bobby Jindal.

STU: For Bobby Jindal.

GLENN: Bobby Jindal is so great.

STU: He's not been able to get out of that kiddie table debate area.

PAT: Or the 0 percent area.

GLENN: I don't know why.

PAT: I don't either.

STU: There's just a lot of people, honestly. It seems like there's a lot of people. If Jindal could hold out for a while and a few people jumped out, he might have a chance.

GLENN: I think it's the goal of the establishment was to send a lot of these people in just to crowd the field to keep people like Bobby Jindal out. Just crowd the field. Because they know they had Bobby Jindal. They know they had Santorum.

PAT: They knew Cruz was going to run.

GLENN: Cruz was going to run.

STU: Rand Paul.

GLENN: Paul was going to run. If you crowd the field and get 12, 15 people up there. Pataki doesn't have a chance of winning. Come on.

PAT: Jim Gilmore, nobody even knows his name. Come on.

GLENN: There's no reason for that. There's no reason for Lindsey Graham. He's not going to win.

PAT: Oh, jeez.

STU: There's no reason for Lindsey Graham as a senator, let alone as a president.

GLENN: Well, I was going to say as a president.

STU: There's an argument to be made.

29 percent for Carson is the highest percentage of any Republican in any national poll by the Wall Street Journal by NBC.

GLENN: Wait a minute. Wait. Of all time or just at this time?

STU: This campaign cycle.

GLENN: Okay.

STU: So Trump has never been able to get to 29 this whole time. Carson is at --

PAT: In the Wall Street Journal. He's been higher than that in others.

STU: He's hit 30 or 31 in polls separate from this. But usually you want to keep the methodology the same. Compare poll versus poll. So Carson was leading by -- or excuse me was trailing by three points in the poll before that. If you go back to July, he was down by nine points to Trump.

GLENN: Give me the Trump numbers, back from July.

STU: He was at 19, 21, 25, 23.

GLENN: Okay. So kind of flat.

STU: Generally flat.

GLENN: Yeah, he's not necessarily cratering.

STU: It's been more of a Carson increase. From ten, 20, 22, 29. People are on the bandwagon for Ben Carson. I think maybe the most interesting part of this poll is first and second choices. There's so many candidates as you point out, Glenn, that if you have your first choice and that person doesn't get it, who is your second choice? Combine those two numbers together.

So at the bottom, you have Bobby Jindal and Rick Santorum, one percent. I should say, at the very bottom, you have Lindsey Graham and Jim Gilcrestmorelandson at 0 percent.

GLENN: Okay.

STU: I just want to make this clear. Lindsey Graham isn't anyone's second choice.

GLENN: He's 1 percent of the population's first choice.

STU: No, no, no, no. He is 0 percent of the population's first choice and 0 percent second choice.

PAT: So that gives him, what, 25, 30 percent?

GLENN: That gives me hope in America.

STU: It does. Okay. So Lindsey Graham, Jim Gilmore, zero. Bobby Jindal, Rick Santorum, 1 percent. So first and second choice combined. At 6 percent, John Kasich, Rand Paul, Chris Christie, at 6 percent. Mike Huckabee at 8 percent. Then Carly Fiorina at 14. Jeb Bush at 15. Ted Cruz at 23.

PAT: Wow.

STU: Marco Rubio, 24.

PAT: Nice.

PAT: All right.

STU: Donald Trump, 35.

GLENN: Wow.

STU: Ben Carson, 50. He is at 50 percent, first and second choice.

JEFFY: Wow.

STU: That is a really strong number.

Featured Image: Presidential candidates Ohio Governor John Kasich (L-R), Mike Huckabee, Jeb Bush, Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL), Donald Trump, Ben Carson, Carly Fiorina, Ted Cruz (R-TX), New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, and Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) take part in the CNBC Republican Presidential Debate at University of Colorados Coors Events Center October 28, 2015 in Boulder, Colorado. Fourteen Republican presidential candidates are participating in the third set of Republican presidential debates. (Photo by Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)

Can Trump win THESE critical swing states?

Michael M. Santiago / Staff | Getty Images

The election is less than three weeks away! And if you are in a state with early voting, it may be even sooner than that!

Like most elections, the 2024 election victor will be determined largely by whichever candidate can win the most swing states, i.e. states that are nearly split 50/50 Democrat and Republican. If Trump is to win the election, he has to win a majority of the seven swing states, which are: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

In order to keep you informed on how Trump is polling in these seven states, how he did against Biden in 2020 and what issues are important to the voters of each of the states, we compiled the relevant information for your convenance below:

Arizona

Michael M. Santiago / Staff | Getty Images

In 2020 Trump lost Arizona to Biden by just over 10,000 votes, or 0.4 percent of the state.

The border state is up in the air again for 2024 and unsurprisingly immigration and border security is the top issue for voters. After border security, long-term water supplies and education rank at the top of Arizona voter's concerns, with inflation and cost of living coming in at number four.

Polls currently place President Trump ahead of Kamala with 48.4 percent of the votes compared to her 46.8 percent.

Georgia

Kevin Dietsch / Staff | Getty Images

In 2020, Trump lost Georgia to Biden by just over 10,000 votes, or 0.3 percent of the state.

Georgia voters are most concerned with abortion access (for or against), followed by environment, climate change, and the economy.

Polls currently place President Trump ahead of Kamala with 48.7 percent of the votes compared to her 47 percent.

Michigan

Scott Olson / Staff | Getty Images

In 2020 Trump lost Michigan to Biden by approximately 150,000 votes, or 2.8 percent of the state.

In Michigan, like many Americans, voters are most concerned by the economy. The economy is trailed by renewable energy and abortion as top issues for Michigan voters this election.

Polls currently place Kamala Harris ahead of Trump with 47.7 percent of the votes compared to his 46.9 percent.

Nevada

Ethan Miller / Staff | Getty Images

In 2020 Trump lost Nevada to Biden by approximately 30,000 votes, or 2.4 percent of the state.

In Nevada, the top issue is for voters is the economy, which is followed by affordable housing. Following affordable housing, immigration ranks high among concerns of Nevada voters along with democracy and crime.

Polls currently place Kamala Harris ahead of Trump with 47.8 percent of the votes compared to his 47 percent.

North Carolina

Anadolu / Contributor | Getty Images

In 2020 Trump won North Carolina against Biden by over 70,000 votes, or 1.4 percent of the state.

Like in many other state, the economy is the leading issue among voters. The economy and inflation is followed by abortion rights and illegal immigration in top concerns for North Caroling voters.

Polls currently place Donald Trump leading Kamala with 48 percent of the votes compared to her 47.6 percent.

Pennsylvania

JIM WATSON / Contributor | Getty Images

In 2020 Trump lost Pennsylvania to Biden by approximately 80,000 votes, or 1.2 percent of the state.

The people of Pennsylvania are the most concerned with jobs, wages and the economy. Behind the economy, Pennsylvanians are most concerned with the future of democracy, immigration, and gun policy.

Polls currently place Kamala leading Trump with 48.1 percent of the votes compared to his 47.4 percent.

Wisconsin

ALEX WROBLEWSKI / Contributor | Getty Images

In 2020 Trump lost Wisconsin to Biden by approximately 40,000 votes, or 0.7 percent of the state.

The primary concern of voters in Wisconsin is the current high cost of living. Behind the cost of living, healthcare and education are high among the concerns of Wisconsinites, with the economy as a whole coming in fourth.

Polls currently place Kamala leading Trump with 48.1 percent of the votes compared to his 47.5 percent.

Counting cookies? Here are the CRAZIEST ways people predict the election.

Jeff Swensen / Stringer | Getty Images

Every four years, America faces the same question: who will win the presidential election?

Top political scientists and media companies devise elaborate polls, complex formulas, and sophisticated projections to calculate who will win the election at any given moment. Even Stu has thrown his hat in the ring with Plusecast, a one-stop shop for all your polling questions. But these methods aren't the only ways to predict who will be the next commander-in-chief.

From cookies to football, here are some unorthodox ways to predict the next president:

The Cookie Poll

Jeff Swensen / Stringer | Getty Images

Can cookies really predict the next president? According to Busken Bakery, they are more accurate than you might think.

Busken Bakery, has been using cookies to predict the winner of presidential elections since Regan beat Mondale in 1984, and has only been wrong once. Their method is simple: they sell cookies with the faces of both candidates and tally the sales of each. Whoever sells the most cookies is predicted to win. The simplicity of this method is its strength, and the only time it was wrong was the 2020 election. Currently, President Trump is far outstripping VP Harris, selling 23,477 cookies compared to her 8,781 cookies (as of 8/15). Busken posts daily updates on their Instagram, here.

Busken isn't the only bakery to make presidential predictions. Lochel's Bakery in the critical swing state of Pennsylvania has gained popularity recently. Lochel's has correctly predicted three of the last four elections by selling red and blue cookies printed with the names of the candidates. The current count for Lochel's is 28,212 for Trump and 2,097 for Harris. Again, Lochel's posts daily updates on their Instagram, here.

According to the cookies, this election is looking pretty sweet for President Trump!

Vegas Odds

Bloomberg / Contributor | Getty Images

It's time to put your money where your mouth is.

It's not just political scientists who cook up election predictions. Casinos and sports betting services get in on the action. What could be a better way to predict an election than by asking people to put their hard-earned dollars on the line?

The big casinos and sports betting sites all have odds on the election, and Trump tends to be the favored candidate. If you are unfamiliar with betting odds in the U.S., the simple explanation of how they work is the smaller the number the better the odds. Here is the spread for three of the big betting sites:

bet365- Trump: -138, Harris: +110

BetMGM- Trump: -137, Harris: +110

Caesars- Trump: -145, Harris: +120

While you shouldn't take this as a sign to put all your money (or any) on President Trump, it is an optimistic sign!

The Redskins Rule

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The Redskins Rule is a well-documented correlation between the outcome of the presidential election and the performance of the Washington D.C. football team, the Redskins (now The Commanders). The rule is that if the Redskins win their last home game before the election, the incumbent party will win the election. If the Redskins lose, the challenging party will win the election. This rule is surprisingly accurate and held true for every election between 1940 and 2000.

If this rule is to be believed, the determining game is on Sunday, October 27th when the Redskins/Commanders play the Chicago Bears in Washington D.C. If the Bears win, that should mean Trump will win the election. If the Redskins win, then Harris will win.

But there is the fact that the rule has been broken several times since 2000. Has the charm worn off? And does it even count anymore if the team is no longer called the Redskins? Only time will tell!

Glenn joined Trump for an eventful weekend in the Southwest

Rebecca Noble / Stringer | Getty Images

We are mere weeks away from the election, and President Trump has been making every day count.

This last weekend, Trump held two rallies back to back in the southwestern corner of our country—one just outside Coachella, California, and the other in Prescott Valley, Arizona. Glenn joined Trump in Arizona, along with thousands of other Americans, to support the former president in his final push towards election day. The polls still show a very tight race. Every vote matters, and with so much at stake, Trump has to finish strong.

Catch up with Trump and Glenn's busy weekend below:

Coachella

On Saturday the 12th, thousands of Donald Trump supporters flocked to Calhoun Ranch, an area not far from the famous Coachella fairgrounds, and braved the heat, drawn by Trump's promise to "Make America Great Again."

The headlining event of the rally was the alleged third assassination attempt on President Trump, although the Trump campaign doesn't see it that way. The action started when the alleged assassin, Vem Miller, was arrested while trying to enter the rally using allegedly fake press credentials and was charged with illegal possession of a handgun, a shotgun, and a high-capacity magazine. Miller has not admitted to an attempted assassination, and in fact, claims to have been a strong Trump supporter since 2018. Miller claims the firearms were purchased as a defensive measure after he received death threats linked to his work in the media. He also claims that the press credentials are not fake, and the mix-up was caused by the fact that he uses a different name on his press credentials as a safety precaution.

The Trump campaign, Secret Service, and FBI do not believe this was an assassination attempt, but in this heated political climate, one can never be too safe.

Prescott Valley

As soon as his rally in Cali was over, Trump hit the road to prepare for his next rally. On Sunday the 13th Trump held a rally in Prescott Valley, Arizona, where both Glenn and U.S. Senate candidate Kari Lake gave opening remarks.

In Glenn's short, yet powerful speech, he emphasized the importance of this election and highlighted all that was at stake— this is a battle of good and evil. He brought up the Left's attempt to erase women through transgender ideology and how that ideology encourages the predation of children. Glenn furthered the case of good versus evil by citing the Left's obsession with abortion. Glenn called abortion the sacrifice of a child's body for the convenience of the parents, a perversion of Christ's sacrifice of His body for us. Glenn called for God's Army to stand up and fight back against evil, using our voices and most importantly, our vote.

Glenn also lambasted Kamala for a recent interview where she admitted she wouldn't have changed anything if she had a chance to do her term as VP over again. He laid into her for marketing herself as an agent of change, while simultaneously defending the status quo. Glenn pointed out that if anyone wants to change the country for the better, Trump is the man to do it: Trump is the candidate for change, not Kamala.

Glenn: What I saw on the ground in Asheville gave me hope

Melissa Sue Gerrits / Stringer | Getty Images

The government can’t save us. Washington is too slow and too bureaucratic, and quite frankly, the government doesn’t care.

I’ve seen a lot of destruction in my life. I’ve walked through war zones and cities torn apart by riots, and I've stood at the sites of natural disasters that leave communities devastated. But what I saw in Asheville, North Carolina, after Hurricane Helene was unlike anything I’ve ever witnessed.

Houses were washed down rivers, upside down and crushed. Train tracks, strong enough to support locomotives, were left suspended in midair after the earth beneath them was eroded away. Semi-trucks, rolled by the force of the floodwaters, now lie like children’s toys, tossed and overturned hundreds of feet from the road. Whole towns have been uprooted and scattered — debris from homes miles away, stacking up like dominoes, bridges that stood for decades washed out by water so high that it flowed six feet over their tops.

'You tell everybody you know — even if they don’t care — we’ll take care of our own damn selves if nobody shows up.'

I stood there, looking at this idyllic small town in the Blue Ridge Mountains, and I thought, “This will take years to rebuild. Maybe even decades.” But I didn’t just see destruction. I saw something far more powerful than nature’s wrath: the resilience of the American spirit.

My expectations for the government’s assistance were low before I arrived in Asheville, given its failing track record in previous natural disasters, but its response to Hurricane Helene victims — or lack thereof — was a new category of negligence. But the people in Asheville weren’t waiting on FEMA or the federal government to swoop in. They knew no one was coming.

The bridges were out, roads were destroyed, and the mountains had isolated them from outside help. But instead of despair, I saw hope. Instead of panic, I saw action. People were taking care of each other, and that is the America I remember, like in the days after 9/11 when we came together regardless of political party, race, or background. We didn’t care about who voted for whom. We just saw our neighbors hurting, and we asked, “Are you OK? What can I do to help?”

I saw that again in North Carolina. I saw it in the man who turned his Harley-Davidson dealership into a helicopter landing zone, shoveling mud out of his showroom just so rescue teams could land. I saw it in the volunteers flying missions across treacherous terrain, getting the elderly and the injured out of danger. They weren’t asking for government permission. They were doing what needed to be done.

Adam Smith, a retired Special Forces veteran who is coordinating the landing of helicopters in Asheville, told me that the FAA is trying to shut down the operation because it isn’t federally regulated. He told the feds that they’re going to leave because he has a helicopter landing in a few minutes that will actually help people while they are barking orders from Washington.

One story stood out to me. We landed to help evacuate an elderly woman with a broken hip and a severe infection. She just had surgery, but because her family didn’t have insurance, the hospital pushed her out as fast as it could. Her wound became infected, and her leg was on fire. We helped airlift her to get her desperately needed antibiotics and treatment. There were no government resources to help her to an emergency room.

As we loaded the woman into the helicopter, her grandson turned to me and said, “You tell everybody you know — even if they don’t care — we’ll take care of our own damn selves if nobody shows up.” That hit me hard because it’s the truth. It’s the way America used to be, and it’s the way we need to be again.

As I flew through those mountains in the helicopter, I couldn’t help but think of Billy Graham. I’d visited Asheville about 10 years ago to see him, and I remember thinking how beautiful and peaceful the town was. Today, it’s unrecognizable. The destruction is overwhelming. But the people are stronger than ever.

The government can’t save us. Washington is too slow and too bureaucratic, and quite frankly, the government doesn’t care. I saw it firsthand. We found a FEMA truck parked under a tree, its workers sitting at a card table in the shade. They weren’t doing anything to help.

But we’re Americans. We can take care of ourselves. We don’t need Washington to save us. We need each other. This is the America that Billy Graham spoke to me about — the America that will rise again in times of trouble. And while the government might fail us, we will not fail each other. And that’s exactly what I saw in North Carolina — Americans stepping up, taking care of their neighbors, and rebuilding their communities.

This is what I told the people of Asheville: You are not forgotten. There are millions of Americans who love you, who are praying for you, and who are ready to help. Because that’s what we do. We don’t wait for permission. We roll up our sleeves and take care of our own.

And to the rest of America, I say this: It’s time to remember who we are. It’s time to stop looking to Washington for solutions and start looking at each other. Because when the chips are down, it’s not the government that’s going to save us. It’s you and me, and if we stand together, nothing — no hurricane, no flood, no disaster — can break us.

Editor's Note: This article was originally published on TheBlaze.com.

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