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WATCH: Stu takes a look at the latest poll numbers for the Presidential election

October 30, 2012
Wilson

Writer

With every news channel dedicated to Hurricane Sandy, attention next week's Presidential election has faded to the background. Even worse, the Benghazi crisis risks fading into the background of the news cycle. How are the battleground states shaping up? And what role will independents play in the election?

Stu explained that one of the most interesting polls came from NPR, which previously had Romney down seven points nationwide.

"The poll today came out with NPR and had Romney up one. So an 8‑point swing from the last poll," Stu said. "The key to this poll is they have Romney only leading by one. With independents Romney is winning by 12. If Romney wins 51‑39 on independents, there's no way he's only winning by 1."

"And I think this is where they are screwing it up. This is where what I'm talking about happens. Because it's independents that are the ones that aren't being counted right. It's the TEA Party vote that says I'm not a Republican, I'm an independent. And if he's up by 12 points, there's no way he wins by 1," Glenn said.

"You just have to do everything that you're supposed to do and get out and vote and grab a neighbor and bring them as well."

 

Transcription of the segment is below:

GLENN: Let's take a look at some of the state polls and where things stand now. Stu it up on the, if you're watching on TheBlaze TV, he's on the set for the election night coverage which isn't finished yet but we're putting the numbers up on the board, a gigantic board. It's actually, we took an old picture from the, I think 1960 race with Jack Kennedy from CBS and this is what ‑‑ I mean, we modeled our studio after that. It's a giant chalkboard in the back and it has all of the 50 states and where the, you know, where the poll numbers are. Will take me through the interesting places here, Stu.

STU: Well, all right. Let's go to what we have kind of a toss‑up races as we've been talking about. Colorado is one that's pretty close. Latest Rasmussen poll has Romney up 4 there, 50‑46. It's a pretty important state and one that I don't think Romney necessarily counted on at the beginning but he's polled well there. I t's kind of gone back to a toss‑up in some of the polling averages. Real Clear Politics has it right now at an exact tie.

GLENN: So Colorado is drifting back towards Obama?

STU: Yeah, the last few polls have showed that, but the Rasmussen poll ‑‑ I know you like Rasmussen most and he's been shown to be one of the most ‑‑

GLENN: Accurate.

STU: ‑‑ accurate pollsters around. So we used that generally where we could.

GLENN: Okay.

STU: So that's a big state for Romney.

GLENN: Colorado, you know, anybody who is in Colorado, you like your guns. Let me make a prediction: If Barack Obama wins on Tuesday, Wednesday you will not be able to ‑‑ the waiting list for guns because you won't be able to buy one not because of the government but because they will be selling at such high volume. It will be staggering. Wednesday will be the biggest gun sales day and next week will be the biggest gun sale week in the history of the world if Barack Obama wins next Tuesday.

STU: That happened last time he was elected, too.

GLENN: Oh, yeah, it will be ‑‑ it will dwarf that. It will dwarf that.

STU: Wow. Ohio is obviously the big state the it's got the fancy light on it and that's how you know it. But the fancy State of Ohio is still the biggest one. The latest poll from Rasmussen has Romney actually winning Ohio 50‑48. If that happens, he's got a really clear path to winning 270 electoral votes.

GLENN: I'm just so afraid of ‑‑ I'm so afraid of corruption. It really comes down to Cincinnati. Have we made the decision yet if we're going to be up in Cincinnati or Columbus this Friday? We had plans for three days of rallies up there and then the hurricane hit and we can't get our people out of New York and from all over. So we can't do it. We're supposed to do something possibly this weekend in Chicago and Ohio and Wisconsin and I don't know if we made that decision yet. Do we know?

STU: My last, what I last heard was Columbus on Friday.

GLENN: Okay.

STU: But I don't know if that's done yet.

GLENN: I've heard ‑‑ here's the problem. If you look at the numbers of registered voters in Cleveland, this is why they're hitting Cleveland so hard, Cleveland is way out of balance. It's almost all Democrat and they are trying to get Cleveland to vote in overwhelming numbers. That's why you have to get out to vote if you're not in the Cleveland area, you've got to get out and vote and overwhelm the rest of the state. Don't think that you're in a sleepy little town that doesn't matter because it does. You've got to get in there and vote and tear it up.

STU: Some of the other swing states, Glenn, Iowa we're showing a tie at 48‑48.

PAT: Wow.

STU: Another big state. Michigan is actually closer than a lot of people projected, especially because of the way Obama has tried to use this auto bailout as one of his big issues. Right now Obama only up 4 in Michigan. This really could go either way although still Obama would be favored there. Wisconsin is another one. Paul Ryan brings that one a little bit closer than was expected as well. Right now that one's tied in the latest poll, 49‑49.

GLENN: That's amazing.

PAT: Wow. That's huge.

GLENN: It really all depends on turnout. It really depends on turnout.

PAT: Kind of the way we have this right now so far is with ‑‑ if we give Romney the states that he's ahead in including Ohio, it looks like it's about 281‑257 Romney.

STU: A few other states, Pat. I don't know how you have them. Virginia. You probably have that for Romney.

PAT: For Romney.

STU: Right now the latest poll's 50‑48 Romney.

PAT: Okay.

GLENN: Wait, wait. Are you going to give Michigan to Romney? Because we're doing this on the polls, too.

PAT: No. So far I got that for Obama.

GLENN: Michigan for Obama?

PAT: Mmm‑hmmm.

GLENN: Okay.

STU: Pennsylvania you would have I would assume towards Obama.

PAT: Yeah.

STU: Still leaning that way, although it's tightened recently. 51‑46 is the latest poll we have.

GLENN: Wow. That is within ‑‑ that is within striking distance.

STU: Yeah, it's not impossible.

PAT: It is.

GLENN: I mean, this could wind up being a sweep of the electoral college. It could be a sweep.

STU: Meaning ‑‑

GLENN: Either way.

PAT: Well, I mean ‑‑

STU: 540‑0?

GLENN: No, no.

STU: 538‑0?

PAT: Yes.

GLENN: I mean a real landslide.

PAT: Yeah, it could.

GLENN: I mean, this could end up being a ‑‑

PAT: It could. I don't know if that's the most likely scenario but it could happen.

STU: Yeah.

GLENN: Well, with all of these states being so close, I mean, look, what was the ‑‑ give me the number of the day before. Somebody look up for me the number of ‑‑ the polling number for the Wisconsin recall the week before, three days before and the day before if we have it. What were the polls saying? Because didn't that win by six points or eight points? And I don't believe that poll was accurate.

STU: No, you're testing me and I don't know off the top of my head, Glenn. We can look it up to are sure.

GLENN: But don't you remember it being that way? Towards the end it looked like that thing wasn't going to pass.

STU: The Scott Brown one is a good example of that, Scott Brown in Massachusetts where he, a few weeks, just a couple of weeks before that election was trailing by 20 points and wound up coming all the way back and actually winning and becoming the senator and now he's running for a very tight reelection.

GLENN: Right. I think this happened in Texas as well where it's like six or eight points different than what the last polls say right before election time. I mean, if that holds true, all of these numbers are ridiculous. Anything close goes to Romney. And that's Ronald Reagan.

STU: Yeah. You know, it seems unlikely at this point that all of these would go that way.

GLENN: No, it does. I mean, I know it seems unlikely but ‑‑

STU: It's possible.

GLENN: It is possible because of the TEA Party and the 9/12 vote.

PAT: Well, let's give them the two states that are closest. Let's give them Michigan and Wisconsin. And if you did that, it's 307‑231. That's huge.

GLENN: That's huge.

PAT: That's a landslide.

STU: Yeah, it's not even going to be remotely close.

GLENN: Give him Florida.

PAT: He's got that.

GLENN: Did you give him Virginia? What is Virginia at right now?

STU: Virginia right now I think is two points lead for Mitt Romney, 50‑48 is what we have it at.

GLENN: Okay. What is left up on the board?

STU: A couple of swing states. New Hampshire. Did we talk about that yet?

GLENN: No.

STU: New Hampshire is 50‑48 Obama right now.

GLENN: Give it to Obama.

PAT: I did.

STU: Nevada is another one that's close, Obama 50‑48 as well, Obama.

GLENN: Give it to Obama.

STU: Florida has been trending towards Romney for a little while. The latest poll has him up two in Florida. And North Carolina is, I don't even know if you can count that as a swing state anymore. It looks like Romney's going to take that one, 52‑46 Romney right now.

GLENN: What about Iowa?

STU: We did hit Iowa here but it was ‑‑ let's see.

PAT: It was tied, wasn't it?

STU: 48‑48, an exact tie.

PAT: Tied.

STU: Give that one to Obama maybe.

GLENN: Yeah, give it to Obama. And Colorado give to Romney.

PAT: Yeah, okay.

GLENN: 301‑237.

PAT: I got 275‑263.

STU: And that's ultra tight, one state makes the difference there. And that's what's interesting.

GLENN: I wonder which state we gave on the bubble chart.

STU: There's one poll, Glenn, that came out today was from NPR and the last poll had Romney down 7 nationwide. The poll today came out with NPR and had Romney up one. So an 8‑point swing from the last poll.

GLENN: But here's the key to this poll.

STU: The key to this poll is they have Romney only leading by one. With independents Romney is winning by 12. If Romney wins 51‑39 on independents, there's no way he's only winning by 1.

GLENN: And I think this is where they are screwing it up. This is where what I'm talking about happens. Because it's independents that are the ones that aren't being counted right. It's the TEA Party vote that says I'm not a Republican, I'm an independent. And if he's up by 12 points, there's no way he wins by 1. You just have to do everything that you're supposed to do and get out and vote and grab a neighbor and bring them as well.

Legal warfare strikes France's conservative hope

Sam Tarling / Stringer | Getty Images

An all-too-familiar story unfolded in France this week: the is law being weaponized against a "far-right" candidate. Does that ring a bell?

Glenn was taken aback earlier this week when he learned that Marine Le Pen, a popular French conservative, had been banned from the 2027 election following a controversial conviction. The ruling shocked French conservatives and foreign politicians alike, many of whom saw Le Pen as France’s best conservative hope. President Trump called it a "very big deal," a view shared by French commentators who fear this marks the end of Le Pen’s political career.

But this isn’t just about France—it’s a symptom of a larger threat looming over the West.

A double standard?

Fmr. President Sarkozy (left) and Fmr. Prime Minister Fillon (right)

BERTRAND GUAY / Contributor, Chesnot / Contributor | Getty Images

As of Sunday, March 30, 2025, Marine Le Pen led the polls with a commanding edge over her rivals, offering French conservatives their strongest shot at the presidency in years. Hours later, that hope crumbled. Found guilty of embezzling EU funds, Le Pen was sentenced to two years of house arrest, fined €100,000 ($108,200), and banned from public office for five years, effective immediately.

Glenn quickly highlighted an apparent double standard. Former President Nicolas Sarkozy and former Prime Minister François Fillon faced similar—or worse—corruption charges, yet neither was barred from office during their political runs. So why Le Pen, and why now? Similar to Trump’s "hush money" trial, legal troubles this late in the election cycle reek of interference. The decision should belong to voters—France’s largest jury—not a courtroom. This appears to be a grave injustice to the French electorate and another crack in democracy’s foundation.

This is NOT about France

Andrei Pungovschi / Stringer | Getty Images

This pattern stretches far beyond France; it’s a tactic we’ve seen before.

In early 2025, Bucharest’s streets erupted in protest after Romania’s Constitutional Court annulled the first round of its presidential election. Călin Georgescu, a rising conservative, had clinched an unexpected victory, only to have it stripped away amid baseless claims of Russian interference. His supporters raged against the decision, seeing it as a theft of their voice.

Both Georgescu and Le Pen echo the legal barrage President Trump endured before his 2024 win. The Left hurled every weapon imaginable at him, unleashing unprecedented lawfare. In America, the Constitution held, and the people’s will prevailed.

Now, with Tesla vandalism targeting Elon Musk’s free-speech stance, a coordinated pushback against freedom is clear—spanning France, Romania, the U.S., and beyond.

The war on free will

Chip Somodevilla / Staff | Getty Images

Trump’s 2024 victory doesn’t mean lawfare is dead; Europe shows it’s thriving.

France and Romania prove its effectiveness, sidelining candidates through courts rather than ballots. Glenn warned us about this years ago—when the powerful can’t win at the polls, they turn to the gavel. It’s a chilling trend of stripping voters of their choice and silencing dissent, all the while pawning it off as justice. The playbook is polished and ready, and America’s turn could come sooner than we think.

Melania Trump's fashion influence inspires the next generation

Aaron P. Bernstein / Stringer | Getty Images

First Lady Melania Trump’s impeccable style has long captivated admirers across the globe, but for one young woman, it sparked a creative revolution.

Lorelai, a young Glenn Beck fan who requested a degree of anonymity, first met Glenn while attending America Fest 2024 in Phoenix, Arizona with her grandmother. An aspiring fashion designer and illustrator, Lorelai shared with Glenn some of her sketches of characters from Glenn’s latest book, Chasing Embers. She also explained how Melania Trump became the cornerstone of her artistic journey, inspiring her to craft modest yet beautiful clothing that redefines modern fashion.

Melania Trump’s elegance—stunning, powerful, and undeniably feminine—first captured Lorelai’s attention during the First Lady’s time in the White House. Unlike the casual, often immodest trends dominating her peers’ wardrobes, Melania’s wardrobe exuded grace and sophistication. From tailored coats to flowing gowns, her choices were a masterclass in balancing boldness with dignity, a philosophy that resonated deeply with Lorelai. This admiration grew into inspiration as Lorelai began designing apparel specifically with Melania in mind, aspiring to design pieces that could match the First Lady’s grace. She strove to reflect Melania’s breathtaking style in her sketches in an effort to demonstrate how modesty can be beautiful.

The First Lady’s poised and graceful presence has redefined modesty for the modern era. To Lorelai, the First Lady’s style proves that more fabric offers boundless room for imagination, allowing personality to shine without sacrificing dignity. Melania embodies this perfectly—her fashion commands attention with stunning, memorable elegance. Inspired by this, Lorelai’s mission is to craft clothing for her generation that mirrors Melania’s influence, blending contemporary flair with classic beauty.

After her meeting with Glenn at America Fest, Lorelai’s passion and resolve have only deepened. Through fashion and art, Lorelai hopes to inspire others with the same grace that Melania Trump exemplifies. Below are some of Lorelai's sketches she was eager to share with Glenn.

Melania Trump: First Lady

I really adore First Lady Melania Trump’s grace and timeless beauty. She is extremely intelligent and brave but also strong and poised. Her fashion style displays these traits. I was inspired to create these outfits for our First Lady in hopes that she would see these drawings. -Lorelai

Melania Trump: Lady Liberty

We, as a country, will be celebrating next year our 250th anniversary of independence. The designs that inspired this patriotic gown came from Lady Liberty and Lady Columbia art. I also love our American flag, and this design is a combination of all three. -Lorelai

Chasing Embers Character Art (Ember)

I chose to draw the characters Sky, Azaz and Ember from Glenn Beck and Mikayla G. Hedrick’s Chasing Embers series. -Lorelai

Chasing Embers Concept Art (Ember)

I was inspired to draw a younger and teen version for Sky and Ember. -Lorelai

Chasing Embers Character Art (Sky)

Chasing Embers Concept Art (Azaz)

I also gave multiple outfits designs for Sky and Azaz. I loved that their personalities and character development meant in my mind a wardrobe development too. -Lorelai

Glenn: Government workers bought luxury cars with YOUR tax dollars

Andrew Harnik / Staff | Getty Images

The deep state isn’t a conspiracy theory — it’s a reality. And the corrupt, free-spending Federal Mediation and Conciliation Service is just one example of how Washington insiders enrich themselves.

A little-known agency in Washington perfectly encapsulates everything wrong with our bloated, corrupt government: the Federal Mediation and Conciliation Service. It should be the poster child of everything that Elon Musk is exposing.

The agency was established in 1947 under the Labor Management Relations Act to serve as an independent agency mediating disputes between unions and businesses — a noble mission, perhaps. But like so many government institutions, it has rotted into something far removed from its original purpose.

The FMCS goes beyond mismanagement into blatant corruption and theft.

What was once a mechanism for labor stability has morphed into an unchecked slush fund — an exclusive playground for bureaucrats living high on taxpayer dollars.

The FMCS is a textbook case of government waste, an agency that no one was watching, where employees didn’t even bother showing up for work — some hadn’t for years. And yet they still collected paychecks and spent government money — our money — on their personal luxuries.

Luxury cars and cell phone bills

The Department of Government Efficiency discovered how FMCS employees used government credit cards — intended for official business — to lease luxury cars, cover personal cell phone bills, and even subscribe to USA Today. The agency’s information technology director, James Donnan, apparently billed taxpayers his wife’s cell phone bill, cable TV subscriptions in multiple homes, and personal subscriptions.

FMCS officials commissioned portraits of themselves and hung them in their offices, and you footed the bill. They took exotic vacations and hired their friends and relatives to keep the gravy train rolling.

The FMCS goes beyond mismanagement into blatant corruption and theft — and it went on for decades, unnoticed and unchallenged.

President Donald Trump signed an executive order to abolish the FMCS — a necessary and long-overdue move. But the FMCS is just one of many agencies within the federal government burning through billions of taxpayer dollars. How many more slush funds exist in the shadows, funneling money into the pockets of bureaucrats who produce nothing? How many government-funded NGOs operate in direct opposition to American interests?

Perhaps the most disturbing question is why Americans tolerate such corruption. Why do so many Americans tolerate this? Why is the left — supposedly the party of the people — defending the very institutions that rob working-class Americans blind?

Corruption beyond bureaucracy

The recent rallies led by Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.), and their socialist acolytes claim to be a grassroots uprising against corruption and greed. But GPS data from these rallies tells a different story. The majority of attendees aren’t ordinary citizens fed up with the status quo. They’re professional activists — serial agitators who bounce from protest to protest.

Roughly 84% of devices tracked at these rallies were present at multiple Kamala Harris events. A staggering 31% appeared at over 20 separate demonstrations, tied to Antifa, Black Lives Matter, and pro-Palestinian causes.

Many of these organizations receive federal grant money — our tax dollars — and they’re using those funds to protest the very policies that threaten to cut off their financial lifeline.

This isn’t democracy in action. This is political theater — astroturfing perfected. And the American taxpayer is funding it.

Rooting out corruption

Trump was a battering ram against this corrupt system. Elon Musk is a surgeon, meticulously exposing the infection that has festered for decades — and that’s why the leftists hate him even more than they hate Trump. Musk threatens to dismantle the financial web that sustains their entire operation.

When we allow the government to grow unchecked and our leaders to prioritize their own wealth and power over the good of the nation, figures like Trump and Musk are necessary. Rome didn’t fall because of an external invasion but rather due to internal decay that looked an awful lot like what we see today.

We must demand better. We must refuse to tolerate this corruption any longer. The FMCS may be gone, but the fight to root out this deep-seated corruption is far from over.

Editor's Note: This article was originally published on TheBlaze.com.

Did the CIA hide the real truth behind JFK's assassination?

Bettmann / Contributor, NurPhoto / Contributor | Getty Images

Many were disappointed by the recent release of the JFK files, frustrated by the apparent lack of answers to decades-old questions. The problem? They’re asking the wrong question.

Everyone wants a "who"—a smoking gun, someone to blame. It’s understandable; Americans crave justice for a slain president, to hold the culprits of one of the 20th century’s greatest crimes accountable. But the real answer isn’t a "who"—it’s a "what." That "what" is the CIA and proof of their nefarious dealings since the 1960s.

In his most recent TV special, Glenn delves into the JFK files, where he found the crucial information that everyone else seemed to miss. Be sure to watch the TV special here.

The CIA's Dirty Fingerprints

While the recent JFK files don’t explicitly pin the assassination on the CIA, the evidence between the lines is compelling.

If you follow Glenn on X, you’ve seen his newest artifact: an exact replica of Lee Harvey Oswald’s rifle. Glenn tested it at the range, attempting to replicate the notoriously difficult shot Oswald allegedly made that fateful day in Dallas. While Glenn shares more takeaways in his TV special, one thing stood out immediately: the rifle’s abysmal quality, its shoddy scope, and the odd caliber of ammunition it uses.

Oswald’s rifle, a Mannlicher-Carcano, is chambered in 6.5mm—an unusual caliber. Much like today, the average gun store in the ‘60s didn’t stock 6.5mm rounds. The largest known supply was owned by the CIA, who had shipped the ammo from Greece after World War II. Suspiciously, there’s no record of where Oswald got his ammunition, but the JFK files confirm that the gun store where he bought the Mannlicher-Carcano had CIA connections.

It’s well-known that Oswald defected to the USSR and lived there before returning to the U.S. The JFK files reveal that from the moment he touched down stateside, the CIA tracked him like a hawk. They followed him across the country and even to Mexico City—but, conveniently, seemed to lose him in Dallas just as President Kennedy arrived. What a coincidence.

Whether by design or gross incompetence, the CIA greased Oswald’s path, letting him slip unhindered into that sixth-floor Book Depository window.

The Cover-Up

SAUL LOEB / Staff | Getty Images

If the JFK files aren’t the smoking gun many hoped for, why did the CIA fight so hard to keep them buried?

The answer is trust. Hard as it may be to imagine today, Americans in the ‘60s trusted their government—at least more than they do now. This cover-up preserved that trust longer than it might have lasted, allowing the CIA to pull off more scandals before the public caught on. From Benghaziand 9/11 to COVID-19 and January 6, the same dirty marks found in the JFK files stain these events. It’s about saving face. The files make the CIA look incompetent at best, complicit at worst.

This might feel like common knowledge today—especially to Glenn’s audience—but 40 or 50 years ago, saying such things could land you in the loony bin. It’s taken 60 years of growing suspicion to reach this point. Imagine if the JFK files had been available back then. Could we have stopped six decades of CIA shenanigans in their tracks?

The thought is chilling.

What Now?

Fotosearch / Stringer | Getty Images

The files don’t name a mastermind or explicitly confirm the darkest JFK assassination conspiracies that have swirled for decades—but they’re far from empty. They expose a disturbing truth: the CIA’s unchecked power in the ‘60s echoes into today.

In one of his most exciting TV specials yet, Glenn delves deep into the files, proving why we can’t ignore these revelations. Stop chasing a "who" and start demanding accountability for the "what." Only by confronting this can we hope to rein in the agency that’s dodged scrutiny for too long.